Purely personal opinion, first I believe the recent ups and downs have no connection to Bitcoin's own narrative, most of the fluctuations are synchronized with the U.S. stock market, especially with technology stocks, of course, Bitcoin's growth compared to technology stocks falls far short.

But it still indicates that the price fluctuations of Bitcoin are indirectly influenced by U.S. macroeconomics and politics. For example, the drop that started last Friday was more due to the escalation of conflicts between Iran and the U.S., and WTI oil prices rising above $100.

Last week, the CPI and PPI data continuously exceeded expectations, leading to market speculation that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in 2026 is almost zero, and even the probability of a rate hike is gradually increasing, which is the trigger.

It is precisely because of this that the future trend of Bitcoin's price should depend more on a complete ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, or even if there is no complete peace, as long as the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, this fire will be immediately extinguished, and it may once again lead to a phase of "bull market rebound".

Of course, if the war continues, and WTI prices remain above $100 for a long time, neither Europe nor America nor even Asia will stand idly by. Iran is dragging the global economy in its fight against the U.S., which is manageable in the short term, but inevitably leads to widespread anger in the long term. So even if inflation expectations continue to rise, it leads to a drop in risk markets.

But as long as this blockade is not prolonged, and the fighting does not exhibit a genocidal tendency, if something can make Bitcoin plummet, it is highly likely that it is due to an economic recession, at which point the U.S. stock market will not be spared either.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。