The last time @gokunocool came to Singapore, he introduced me to @Billion_Global, mainly because I am very optimistic about the field of live streaming + prediction. To some extent, I even believe that this track is one of the few opportunities that can emerge in the current Asian prediction arena.

The biggest problem in the Asian prediction market right now is not a lack of topics, nor is it entirely due to the mismatch of Eurasian environments. One of the biggest issues is the error in user targeting. I talked about this in the interview with @hananotsorry; prediction markets that cannot see this problem find it hard to survive.

Just because Polymarket and Kashi use cryptocurrency doesn’t mean that crypto users are the main force in prediction markets. This is a very mistaken viewpoint. Most users in the crypto circle come to "defy the odds," rather than seeking to earn a few times or even ten times their investment, which is simply not appealing to most people.

Not to mention that prediction markets, in the long run, are a form of investment return, not a “gambling” activity where one can earn multiple times at any time. For users accustomed to high leverage and contracts, this is merely entertainment, unless a "quantitative" solution that requires no manual intervention can be developed.

Prediction markets need to escape the trap of "cryptocurrency"; breaking out of this niche is essential. Sticking to the crypto space can hinder significant development.

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