Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)

Recently, due to continuous hints from official members of Polymarket regarding the POLY token, various communities have analyzed the timing and scale of the POLY airdrop from different perspectives. According to predict.fun data, the probability of the event “Polymarket will launch its official token by the end of this year” is reported at 56%; there is even a 7% probability that “Polymarket will launch its official token before Q2 this year”.

Additionally, in terms of market capitalization, the event probability for “Polymarket’s FDV exceeding $6 billion one day after launch” is reported at 51%; there is a 34% probability that “Polymarket’s FDV will exceed $10 billion one day after launch”.

Polymarket Official Token Hints Timeline

October 2025: Initial Hints and Official Confirmation of the POLY Token

The signals released by Polymarket officials regarding the POLY token can be traced back to last October.

On October 8, 2025, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan posted on platform X that POLY would be alongside BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL, igniting speculation in the community about Polymarket's token issuance. Although this was not a formal announcement for token issuance, the founder personally mentioning $POLY was sensitive enough for the market. Subsequently, discussions within the community about Polymarket’s token issuance began to heat up significantly.

Afterward, the expectation of an airdrop was further brought into public discussion by the team members. On October 23, 2025, Polymarket's growth leader William LeGate mentioned “prospective airdrop farmers” in a podcast or related discussion, referring to users expecting an airdrop. While not a formal rule explanation, it effectively acknowledged the existence of user behaviors and expectations surrounding the Polymarket airdrop in the market.

The event that further solidified the expectation for the POLY token occurred on October 24, 2025. Polymarket CMO Matthew Modabber clearly stated in a podcast, “Polymarket will have a token and will also have an airdrop.” This statement became a key nodal point in transitioning from community speculation to official confirmation regarding the Polymarket token.

Entering November, the official discussion focus shifted from whether there would be an airdrop to what kinds of actions would disqualify someone from receiving an airdrop. On November 11, 2025, William LeGate explicitly stated in response to Sybil farming, “I can clearly tell you that those accounts created by witches will not be eligible for airdrop distribution; they are just wasting their time.”

April This Year: Major Market Platforms Launch POLY Preview Pages

Entering April this year, the expectation for the POLY token extended to major cryptocurrency market websites.

Currently, both CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap have preview pages for Polymarket (POLY). Although these pages do not equate to the formal issuance of the token, nor do they represent that Polymarket has announced the TGE timing, the external market platforms starting to reserve pages for $POLY further strengthen the community's expectation for Polymarket’s token issuance.

May This Year: POLY Token Moves from Airdrop Expectation to Product Hints

Entering May, discussions surrounding the POLY token have further progressed towards specific functionalities and airdrop eligibility.

On the evening of May 4, a member of the Polymarket official team, Mustafa, responded to questions about the POLY token during a community interaction. A user asked when they can stake POLY to reduce transaction fees, or future potential listing fees. Mustafa replied, “Soon.” The community quickly interpreted this response as Polymarket preparing for the token launch.

On May 13, clues regarding the POLY token continued to increase. Polymarket product leader Dustin Karp shared a photo of his workspace, stating he passed by Mustafa’s desk. The photo allegedly featured internal pages related to the POLY airdrop, and the community discovered an Airdrop label when magnified, further boosting POLY token airdrop expectations.

Subsequently, Polymarket growth leader LeGate also responded to questions about official badges in community discussions. LeGate replied that the blue badge represents Polymarket employees; the Traders badge is primarily for traders who have achieved cumulative profits of $100,000 or other high trading volume users (in other tweets, it required trading volume exceeding $10 million and expressed that if users are active on Polymarket, their profit and trading volume can be slightly adjusted), and renowned community contributors; the Builders badge is for projects that develop and build based on the Polymarket ecosystem.

Badges may not be the only criterion for obtaining an airdrop. The community inquired whether contributions on X would earn POLY token rewards. LeGate responded that binding X accounts with Polymarket accounts is just one-third of the conditions. Additionally, users might also need to add their Polymarket personal homepage link in their X personal profile and actively share their trading, profit records, and market insights on X, maintaining interaction with the community.

Although this response did not clarify whether “mouth farming” could genuinely obtain an airdrop, various communities remain relatively optimistic, actively posting Polymarket related content on X to attract potential token airdrops.

Personal Strategy

For me, who has been deeply involved in prediction markets in the first half of this year, I still lean towards believing that Polymarket will not issue the token before the World Cup.

The reason is simple: Polymarket's more critical task now may not be to issue tokens immediately but to refine its trading experience and infrastructure first. Whether it is the ongoing optimization of the V2 version or even changing chains, fundamentally, it is all about preparing for high traffic and high trading frequency scenarios such as the World Cup. For Polymarket, if the platform experience is unstable during the World Cup, it would be hard to actually accommodate new users and transaction volume, even if the token were issued in advance.

Therefore, recent trading focuses on hedging, placing orders on predict.fun to earn points, and conducting hedging on Polymarket after receiving positions. At the same time, I participate in various events on Polymarket with a profit goal. Additionally, I will bind my personal X account information on Polymarket and post Polymarket related content on X, hoping that when the token is eventually issued, “mouth farming users” will also receive some airdrop.

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