⚠️ This year AI is so impressive, will there still be a May curse for US stocks?

Aside from midterm election years, looking from another angle at the S&P 500 index over different time spans, the "weak" label for May does have some basis——

Last 10 years (2016–2025): average change of about +0.2%, probability of increase 55%, overall slightly biased towards neutral. This is thanks to the long bull market in tech stocks in recent years offsetting seasonal weaknesses.

Last 20 years (2006–2025): average change of -0.1%, probability of increase 50%, close to the annual average.

Last 30 years (1996–2025): average change of -0.2%, probability of increase 48%, slightly biased towards weak.

Last 100 years (1926–2025): average change of -0.3%, probability of increase 47%, historically May is indeed one of the months with the worst performance of the year.

Image from @PANews

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