🧐According to the risk levels, I would score mainstream coins as follows——

Teacher Yu Jin's chart is striking and worth referencing:

The teacher's point is: Bitcoin:native reached the bottom in the last cycle, with the average daily trading volume of BTC/USDT on Binance around 2 billion dollars, but now it's only about 500 million dollars.

Based on the correction in the last bear market, it is expected that the current market bottom for Bitcoin will be around 31,000 dollars.

I think this viewpoint is correct in direction, but the conclusion might be slightly different, with several differing opinions:

1️⃣ The spot trading volume on Binance is no longer indicative of the overall market heat.

The trading structure has already changed.

ETFs, contracts, on-chain Dex, other exchanges, and institutional custody have all diverted part of the price discovery function that Binance spot used to bear.

For example, as of May 15, the total net assets of the U.S. spot BTC ETF were approximately 107.75 billion dollars, and this portion of funds does not necessarily reflect in Binance's spot trading.

2️⃣ Market activity has indeed shifted more towards derivatives.

CoinGlass's Q1 2026 report shows that the Q1 crypto market spot trading volume was about 19.4 trillion dollars, while the derivatives volume was about 186.3 trillion dollars, with a derivatives/spot ratio of about 9.6 times, indicating that market activity is mainly concentrated in derivatives while spot trading contracts have visibly shrunk.

This is a huge difference compared to 2022:

No one is chasing spot, but there are still people speculating in contracts. My understanding is that the market has entered a stage where there are fewer real buyers and more leveraged speculation.

So my understanding is——

1️⃣ For BTC: It is not particularly severe.

BTC now seems to have entered a stage of "institutionalization, low turnover, and high market value."

The cold trading volume indicates weak upward momentum, but it does not necessarily mean it will definitely go back to 30,000. What we really need to be wary of is continuous outflows from ETFs, macro risk assets falling together, and long-term holders on-chain starting to distribute significantly.

From my personal perspective, if BTC can drop to 65,000 I would choose to start buying in, and if it can really drop to 50,000, I would probably have a full position.

2️⃣ For Ethereum:native: Quite severe.

ETH's price is not particularly far from the last bottom, but trading enthusiasm has indeed cooled significantly.

If there are no clear new narratives, new income logic, new ETF increments, or ecosystem recovery, the issue with ETH is not how much it drops, but why the market must buy it now; this is Ethereum's biggest test in the next phase.

3️⃣ For BNB: Neutral but leaning towards severe.

BNB has a stronger platform currency attribute and is tied to the Binance ecosystem, not entirely reliant on secondary market speculation, so I have already started to buy some, and I feel more positive about BNB.

If we look at the risk levels, I would score as follows:

BTC: 4/10 Severe;

ETH: 6/10 Severe;

BNB: 4/10 Severe;

Overall altcoins: 8/10 Severe.

So in terms of operations, you can refer to Teacher Yu Jin's chart, but you also need to have your own rhythm.

What Teacher Yu reminds us is not about where the bottom must be, but:

This market can no longer rely on the inertia of a bull market to gamble. You either hold assets with the most structural advantages, hold cash flow/stablecoins, or wait for a real volume confirmation.

Those things that rely on emotions to survive in between carry the biggest risks, so everyone should avoid them!

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