Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.68 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.3%, which is $1.61 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $32.25 billion, a decrease of 0.19% in the last 7 days, with USDT making up 58.84%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number saw rises while most fell, including: BTC with a 7-day increase of 0.77%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 1.35%, SOL with a 7-day increase of 3.1%, H with a 7-day increase of 34.07%, and INJ with a 7-day increase of 26.29%.
This week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $990 million; the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $124 million.
Market Forecast (May 18-May 24):
RSI index is 47 (neutral, below last week), fear and greed index is 42 (fear), and altcoin season index is 30 (neutral).
BTC: $75,000-82,000 (strong support at $75,000)
ETH: $1,900-2,400 (key support at $1,900)
SOL: $80-90 (linked to the overall market)
Risk Warnings:
Regulatory Policy Implementation: The key voting result of the U.S. Senate on the "CLARITY Act" might bring a clear regulatory framework to the market, acting as an important short-term catalyst.
Changes in Fund Flows: Continue to observe whether there is net inflow or outflow in Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. Any continuous outflow of funds may signal weakening market conditions.
Macroeconomic Market Sentiment: Although the chances of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in June are low, any strong statements regarding inflation or the economy may tighten global market liquidity, creating pressure on risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
Understanding Now
The U.S. Senate Committee Historic Passage of the CLARITY Act
This is the most milestone event of the week. On May 14, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee officially passed the "Digital Asset Market Clearity Act" (CLARITY Act) with a vote of 15 in favor and 9 against. This is the first time in U.S. congressional history that a complete legislation on cryptocurrency market structure has been voted on and passed at the committee level. The bill text spans 309 pages and includes legal protections for DeFi developers. The bill will next enter the full Senate voting phase, with market predictions showing a roughly 75% chance of it becoming law by the end of 2026.
Bitcoin Stands Firm Above $80,000, Weekly Key Consolidation Completed
Bitcoin effectively held above the $80,000 mark this week, closing at about $82,210 on May 10, marking the first complete weekly close above this key position since the end of January. Despite fluctuations influenced by CPI data and ETF fund movements during the week, the price briefly retreated to $79,500 but then quickly stabilized. As of May 15, Bitcoin was trading around $81,000, with an approximate 2% increase over the past week.
U.S. April CPI Surprises at 3.8%, Rate Hike Expectations Temporarily Disturbed the Market
The U.S. April CPI data released on May 12 showed an inflation rate of 3.8%, higher than the economist expectation of 3.7%, marking the highest level since the autumn of 2023. The inflation surprise was primarily driven by energy costs (Iran situation pushing up oil prices), causing a brief resurgence in rate hike expectations, which pressured Bitcoin. However, both the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market subsequently absorbed this negative influence, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their sixth week of gains and hitting new historical highs.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflows for Six Consecutive Weeks, BlackRock Leading Institutional Accumulation
Institutional funds continue to flow in, with Bitcoin spot ETFs having achieved net inflows for six consecutive weeks, setting a record for the longest continuous net buying since August 2025, totaling approximately $3.4 billion. This week showed a pattern of strong inflows in the first half and some profit-taking in certain products in the latter half. Notably, the market displayed a clear “winner takes all” structure, with funds accelerating towards BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC, while BlackRock's CEO Larry Fink reiterated this week that Bitcoin serves as a "hedge against currency devaluation."
Trump Attends China Summit Seeking Peace with Iran, Geopolitical Risk Premium Fluctuates
Geopolitics became a key variable affecting risk assets this week. U.S. President Trump attended a summit with Chinese leaders this week, seeking to resolve the Iran conflict through diplomacy. Prior U.S.-Iran negotiations had buoyed market sentiment, leading to a sharp drop in international oil prices; however, Trump later indicated that the ceasefire agreement was "on shaky ground," and Iran labeled the U.S. proposal as "completely unacceptable," causing WTI oil prices to rebound to around $98, reigniting geopolitical risk premium. The market closely watches the progress of negotiations and its impact on inflation and risk appetite.
XRP ETF Holdings Surpass $1.18 Billion, Institutions Positioning in Alternative Assets
This week, demand for XRP ETF saw a significant increase, with holdings value climbing to $1.18 billion, accounting for about 1.3% of total XRP supply. This means that approximately 770 million to 840 million XRP have shifted from the open market to institutional holders. Although there has not been a drastic price response—XRP has remained stable in the $1.30 to $1.50 range for the past three months—the decrease in exchange order book liquidity sets the stage for potential supply shocks in the future. XRP rose approximately 3.5% this week, trading around $1.49.
Ethereum Whales Fully Liquidate, Over $750 Million BTC Holdings Remain
An important on-chain movement has drawn market attention: according to Arkham data, on May 11, a well-known whale "HyperUnit" fully liquidated its remaining Ethereum holdings into Binance, completing complete liquidation of its ETH exposure. Previously, this address held a total of approximately $10 billion in BTC and ETH during peak market cycles, with about $750 million in Bitcoin remaining on-chain. The market interprets this move as investor concern over competitive pressure on Ethereum (emerging L1s like Solana offer lower fees and faster transactions), while also reflecting Bitcoin's ongoing status as the most trusted asset in their portfolios.
USDC Experiences Weekly Net Inflows Exceeding $1.6 Billion, Stablecoin Total Market Cap Surpasses $32.3 Billion
The stablecoin market continues its expansion, with its total market cap exceeding $32.3 billion. The USDC issued by Circle performed particularly well, with a weekly net inflow of approximately $1.61 billion, bringing its market cap to $78.96 billion, with a weekly increase of 2.08%. This boost led Circle's stock to surge by 15.91% on May 10, closing at $131.76. The continuous accumulation of "dry powder" reserves in stablecoins is seen as an important signal of increased purchasing power, providing a liquidity foundation for subsequent market upswings.
Bank Crypto Custody Services Launched, Institutional Entry Barriers Significantly Lowered
This week, following the implementation of SAB 122 accounting principles, large custodial institutions such as BNY Mellon began executing a new digital asset custody agreement. This means that the costs and compliance barriers for traditional financial institutions to hold crypto assets have been significantly reduced, clearing key obstacles for large funds to enter the market. This improvement at the infrastructure level is viewed as a crucial driving force for institutional bull markets and works synergistically with ETF fund inflows.
Arthur Hayes Boldly Predicts: Bitcoin Target of $126,000
Despite the market being constrained by inflation and geopolitical uncertainties in the short term, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes provided an optimistic long-term outlook this week. He predicted that, driven by global liquidity changes resulting from the tech competition between China and the U.S., Bitcoin prices could climb to $126,000. He noted that the aggressive monetary policies of major central banks prioritize economic growth over inflation concerns, and increased access to bank credit will serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s rise. Additionally, Bernstein and Goldman Sachs have both set target prices of $150,000 to $200,000 for the end of the year.
Macroeconomics
On May 12, U.S. April unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate is 3.8%, expected 3.7%.
On May 12, U.S. April adjusted CPI month-on-month rate is 0.6%, expected 0.6%.
On May 14, the U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending May 9 was recorded at 211,000, the highest since the week of April 18, exceeding the market expectation of 205,000. The previous value was revised from 200,000 to 199,000.
On May 14, according to Federal Reserve rate expectations, the probability of no rate change in June is 98.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 1.8%.
ETF
According to statistics, from May 11 to May 15, the net outflow of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was: $990 million; as of May 15, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $26.556 billion, currently holding $11.803 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $64.625 billion. The total market cap of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is: $106.951 billion.
the net outflow of U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was: $12.4 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Industry Conferences
Southeast Asia Blockchain Week will be held from May 18 to 24, 2026, in Bangkok, Thailand.
ETHMilan will take place from May 21 to 22, 2026, in Milan, Italy.
Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will be held on June 2 to 3 in Turkey.
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held from July 1 to 3, 2026, in Kyoto, Japan.
WebX 2026 will take place from July 13 to 14, 2026, in Tokyo, Japan.
Project Progress
The Cardano NFT market JPG Store will gradually shut down, officially going offline on May 23.
Base Batches 003 Accelerator will hold its on-site Demo Day in San Francisco on May 19.
Important Events
On May 21 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16 (in ten thousand).
On May 22 at 22:00, the U.S. will announce the final value of the May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Token Unlocking
Katana (KAT) will unlock 176 million tokens on May 18, valued at approximately $1.52 million, accounting for 6.98% of circulation.
Pyth Network (PYTH) will unlock 2.1 billion tokens on May 19, valued at approximately $97.38 million, accounting for 36.96% of circulation.
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on May 20, valued at approximately $33.93 million, accounting for 5.07% of circulation.
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 17.59 million tokens on May 20, valued at approximately $7.67 million, accounting for 4.7% of circulation.
SOON (SOON) will unlock 21.91 million tokens on May 23, valued at approximately $3.66 million, accounting for 4.6% of circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research is the core research institution of the Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. Through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Reports," we analyze market contexts for you; leveraging our exclusive column “Hotcoin Selections" (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce the cost of trial and error. Each week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that with warm companionship and professional guidance, we can help more investors navigate through cycles and seize the value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The volatility of the cryptocurrency market is high, and investment carries risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and conduct investments under a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website：https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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