Yesterday, while chatting with friends about the current market, everyone shared a common feeling: this round of bear market is not as excruciating as before; we hardly hear extreme emotions like total collapse or outright statements that the market is a scam. The overall sentiment has stabilized a lot.

To illustrate this, I specifically compiled data for a comparison, using the on-chain realized losses on the day Bitcoin declined sharply to measure the level of market panic intuitively.

Looking back at past markets, during the bear market from 2018 to 2019, there were three instances of large-scale losses; the bear market from 2022 to 2023 saw as many as four. In contrast, this round of the market has only seen two large losses so far, with the loss on February 5 reaching a historical high of thirty billion dollars.

It is unrealistic to say that there is no panic in the market; it is just that the occurrence of this kind of deep price crash and collective being trapped has decreased.

When we consider the overall market cap of Bitcoin during different periods, the answer becomes clearer. In the significant declines of 2018 and 2019, the individual large losses accounted for about 3% to 6% of the total market cap at that time, and the bear market in 2022 saw similar proportions.

However, in the two recent major declines, the losses accounted for only 0.11% and 0.24% of the market cap. In other words, Bitcoin’s size has grown, significantly increasing its capacity to withstand pressure, resulting in less impact and psychological torment for ordinary investors, making this bear market the mildest compared to previous ones.

If we compare a bear market to the cold winter of the market, the previous two rounds were bitterly cold winters, while this year is more like a warm winter with slightly lower temperatures.

In nature, when winter temperatures are insufficient, the growth rhythm of all things is disrupted. The same holds for market trends. Being in this awkward transitional period where the bear market is not complete and a bull market is slow to arrive, the subsequent trends are likely to be more grueling than before, with longer periods of fluctuation.

This type of market tests one's mentality and patience the most; instead of frequently operating and making repeated errors, it is better to maintain a calm mindset and quietly wait for the market to head in a clear direction.

Personal experience chat, solely for market thought exchange, does not constitute any investment advice.

Public Account: Big Bull Discusses Market

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