Months ago our markets analyst @that1618guy called the BTC/Gold ratio near the floor at the 2nd deepest drawdown in the framework's history.

The ratio has recovered roughly +40% off the February lows. Gold corrected nearly -19% from its all-time high as BTC gained ground back to ~$78K. This is Scenario 1 playing out with gold declining.

The primary confirmation signal is a 1W 9/21 EMA green cross, projected for early June. The three prior green crosses after the deepest red crosses ran +148%, +641%, and +148%.

The macro backdrop is messier than it was in February with inflation back at 3.8%, rate cuts off the table, and an active war with Iran. Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as Fed Chair and his first FOMC lands on June 16-17, around the same time as the projected cross.

The PBOC has bought gold for 17 consecutive months and continued through the $5,000 level. The next leg of the ratio recovery depends on BTC strengthening.

The cross is now weeks away.

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