Will Bitcoin drop to 40,000 USD if it can't reach 82,000 USD??

Recently, many friends have messaged me asking whether after $BTC's failure to hit 82,000 USD, it would then drop all the way down, possibly to as low as 40,000 USD.

From my personal understanding, this round of rising from 60,000 USD to 80,000 USD was mainly due to the easing of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Some friends may ask, wasn't it said that the strong buying power seen around the 60,000 USD level, which had disappeared for a long time, led to this? And that strong buying power is because investors felt that around 60,000 USD was a very good buying point.

This statement is actually not accurate. From the price trend, it can be clearly seen that when Bitcoin's price first dropped to around 60,000 USD at the beginning of February, investors were in a selling state, with more BTC flocking to exchanges, indicating that some holders were not optimistic due to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

Only after a month, in early March, when rumors began to emerge that the war between the U.S. and Iran might come to a resolution, did some funds start to purchase, which is why I previously said that Bitcoin at 60,000 USD and Bitcoin at 80,000 USD are no different; the rise was not because of BTC itself.

So, will it drop to 40,000 USD now?

From the current position data, investors around the 80,000 USD mark still maintain good buying power. It does seem to be less than during the peak, but currently, more BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges, and no large accumulation has yet formed.

In other words, at least for now, what I see is that investors are still buying, not that they are selling in large quantities, and I have also mentioned multiple times that Bitcoin's price fluctuations are more related to the macro, political, and economic conditions of the U.S., which affect the U.S. markets, especially tech stocks, thereby impacting $BTC.

If Bitcoin were to drop to 40,000 USD, it would either mean that the U.S. stock market has also experienced a significant pullback, or that Bitcoin itself is facing a crisis. The former is not impossible; for example, if war between the U.S. and Iran reignites, or if Iran were to use nuclear weapons, or if the U.S. enters a recession, any of these could lead to a sharp decline in both the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin. The probability of the latter is lower.

But at least I think this has no direct relation to whether it can reach 82,000 USD.

Overall, I personally do not believe that if it does not reach price X, it will go to price Y. Such a statement would indicate a significant price fluctuation, and from the current situation, this would certainly mean changes have occurred in the macro, political, and economic fields of the U.S. or globally.

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