Today, the market sentiment can be described as a contrast of fire and ice. On one hand, Charles Schwab has launched spot cryptocurrency trading, supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum, which undoubtedly is a significant positive development, accelerating the entry of traditional financial giants and opening new channels for compliant funds. On the other hand, Federal Reserve's Waller barely won the chair position, hinting at a reduction in the balance sheet and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which directly suppresses the valuation of risk assets. At the same time, BTC has broken below the critical support level of 79,000 USDT, with a total liquidation of 165 million dollars across the network in 4 hours, severely impacting long positions. These two bearish news items compounded have made the market significantly pressured in the short term. Our Qinglan Crypto Classroom has consistently emphasized that news is a catalyst, while technical analysis is the basis for decision-making. Today, we will use data to dissect the current market situation.

The current price and time

The current time is May 14th, 10:23, with BTC quoted at 79,643 USDT, reflecting a 24-hour decline of 1.48%. The price is fluctuating within the range of 79,000-80,000, with the market in a state of panic, indicated by the fear and greed index at 42, which falls into the fear zone.

Multi-period status overview

First, looking at the daily level, MA5 is at 80,683, MA10 at 80,664, and MA30 at 78,223. The price of 79,643 is below the short-term moving averages but above MA30. The MACD bar is -264.31, with DIF at 1,524.21 and DEA at 1,788.53. The DIF has crossed below the DEA forming a death cross, indicating a correction signal at the daily level. RSI stands at 63.50, in a neutral to strong area, but has already pulled back from a higher level. The daily chart overall shows a weak pattern of high-level oscillation.

At the 4-hour level, MA5 is at 79,585, MA10 at 80,187, and MA30 at 80,751. The price is running below the moving averages. The MACD bar is -206.39, with DIF at -306.89 and DEA at -100.49, in a death cross state with green bars continuing to expand, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released. RSI is at 33.66, close to the oversold area, but has not yet entered that zone, indicating that there may still be downward space.

At the 1-hour level, MA5 is at 79,513, MA10 at 79,542, and MA30 at 80,226. The price is tangled near the short-term moving averages. The MACD bar is 23.37, with DIF at -321.25 and DEA at -344.62. Although the MACD bar has turned positive, both DIF and DEA remain negative, indicating a rebound repairing after a decline, not a trend reversal. RSI is at 41.30, in a weak area. The critical EMA55 is at 80,387, and the current price of 79,643 is below EMA55, dominated by bears.

At the 15-minute level, MA5 is at 79,570, MA10 at 79,569, and MA30 at 79,506. The price has slightly rebounded above the moving averages. The MACD bar is 28.39, with DIF at 13.12 and DEA at -15.27, a golden cross forming, and RSI at 60.36, indicating short-term rebound momentum but limited strength.

Overall, the daily level appears weak, the 4-hour bears dominate, the 1-hour bears are in trend, and the 15-minute shows a rebound demand. Multi-period resonance is downward, with short-term rebounds merely acting as a continuation within the downward trend.

TPV signal validation

According to the Qinglan TPV system, we use the 1-hour EMA55 as the boundary between long and short positions. The current EMA55 is at 80,387, and the price of 79,643 is below EMA55, indicating a bearish trend area.

First, let's validate the short selling conditions. First, the price has been under pressure below the 1-hour EMA55, with the close prices of the past 8 1-hour K-lines all below EMA55, satisfying the condition. Second, facing resistance, the price has frequently spiked and retreated around 80,000, forming long upper shadows, with a top formation structure at the 4-hour level, satisfying the condition. Third, the rebound is weak; although the 1-hour MACD bar has turned positive, it has contracted for the last 2 periods, and RSI has risen from 41.30 but has weak momentum without forming an effective bullish engulfing, satisfying the condition. All three conditions are met, and the TPV system issues a short-selling signal.

Next, we look at the long conditions. The current price is below EMA55, and the close prices of the last 2 1-hour K-lines are below EMA55, which does not satisfy the long conditions. Regarding the consolidation conditions, the number of close prices above EMA55 for the past 8 K-lines is 0, with 0 instances of crossing, and the amplitude from the price to EMA55 is 0.93%, not meeting the consolidation threshold, indicating a one-sided bearish trend. Therefore, we only consider short selling at present and not long trading.

On-chain/funds

In terms of on-chain data, the fear and greed index is at 42, indicating that the market is in a state of fear, which usually means that short-term selling pressure is still present, but in the long term, it may be at a bottom area. BTC's market share is 58.11%, indicating that capital is still seeking refuge in Bitcoin. However, during the decline process, the market share has not significantly increased, suggesting that funds are also flowing out. In terms of news, the TAC cross-chain bridge has suffered a hack, resulting in a loss of 2.8 million dollars, and Ethereum ICO whales have transferred nearly 70,000 ETH, which has exacerbated market panic and increased short-term selling pressure. The positive news from Charles Schwab belongs to long-term capital inflow, which is difficult to offset short-term panic emotions.

Key support and resistance levels

The first resistance level above is the 1-hour EMA55 at 80,387, which is the boundary between long and short positions and also a strong resistance for any rebound. The second resistance level is the 4-hour MA10 at 80,187, as well as near the previous high around 81,000. The first support level below is the round number of 79,000; if this breaks, the second support level is the daily MA30 at 78,223, along with the previous low around 78,000. If the 78,000 level is breached, it may accelerate further down to 76,000.

Trading thoughts

Based on the bearish signal from the TPV system, we have formulated the following trading plan.

Direction: Short.

Entry conditions: Wait for the price to rebound to near the 1-hour EMA55, specifically in the range of 80,300-80,400, look for a long upper shadow or a top formation structure, and ensure that the MACD bars contract for two consecutive periods with RSI dropping from 41.30, confirming the weakness in the rebound before entering. If the price directly breaks below 79,000, short positions can be pursued on a rebound to 79,300-79,500, but confirmation of a breakout on high volume is needed.

Stop-loss: Set above 81,000, as a breakthrough above this level indicates that the bearish trend may be disrupted, requiring a cautious approach.

Target levels: The first target level is 79,000, which is a round number and a previous support level, likely to experience some rebound. The second target level is 78,000, corresponding to the daily MA30; if this level is broken, we look at 76,000.

If the price approaches around 79,000 with high-volume stagnation or long lower shadows, consider closing some of the positions, but do not reverse to go long since the trend is bearish.

Risk reminder

The current market is in a state of panic, with a concentration of bearish news. Short-term volatility may intensify, and stop-losses must be strictly enforced, do not hold losing positions.

Follow the Qinglan Crypto Classroom to seize more trading opportunities! Visit our official website at www.qinglan.org


📊 Qinglan TPV trading strategy backtest reference
🕒 Last backtest time 05-14 07:00:01
Total analysis: 1511 Backtest: 1505 Accuracy: 66.4% (999/1505)

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。