I currently have no courage to check my CLUSDT position, not because of losses, in fact today the position has started to profit, but the total cost is still at a loss, mainly due to the funding rate. The positions opened on Sunday have had 20% of the principal deducted by the funding rate by today. I sincerely hope some positive news for WTI can come out in the next couple of days, I am really in a vacuum now, the current funding rate is a bit too high.
I hope good news arrives soon. Trump has already arrived in China, and the relationship with Iran should also be an issue that needs to be resolved during Trump's visit to China. Especially today, it was reported that the US intelligence agencies are investigating China's sale of weapons to Iran. These may increase the difficulty of Trump's negotiations, but I believe that Trump and Xi Jinping most likely already know the content and probable responses to talk about before facing each other.
Trump's decision to continue visiting China is likely because he expects to achieve good results. Trump can be said to be besieged on all sides in the U.S. right now; although U.S. stocks are performing well, everyone knows it is driven by AI, while industries outside AI are not doing well. Inflation in the U.S. continues to rise, and the cost of living is increasing. Trump criticizes Biden over oil prices; current oil prices far exceed those during Biden's term.
High inflation, high interest rates, high cost of living—these are all very unfavorable for the mid-term elections, especially given the problems with Trump's tariffs and foreign policies. Trump needs to have something positive emerge, and hopes that this visit to China can alleviate his current predicament. Especially, Trump probably hopes that China can provide support on the Iran issue.
Returning to Bitcoin data, although the price of $BTC has intermittently fallen below $80,000, as I have always said, there are no issues on the data front for BTC; all metrics are very stable. The main factor affecting the price is the sell-off from short-term investors, and what influences this sell-off is macroeconomic policy. Personally, I believe BTC reacts more to macro data than the current U.S. stock indices.
After all, U.S. stocks have such an astonishing valuation driven by AI that it masks the decline of many small and medium enterprises. In fact, it's not just small and medium enterprises; the Nike, which I have always used as a benchmark, recently broke its historical low of nearly 12 years.
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