WTI closed at 102 dollars, and my current position has nearly returned, and the liquidation price has also been adjusted back to above 120 dollars. I hope those who want to short WTI or CLUSDT pay attention to this. The probability of trading news is too high right now, and if a short-term news event occurs, it might cause a price spike. However, in the long term, I still firmly believe that WTI will definitely fall.

Today, the U.S. Energy Information Administration also released the latest information, suggesting that by the end of May 2026, the Strait of Hormuz should be open, mainly because pressures on global oil will greatly increase after this time, and Iran may have to face more than just the U.S. This judgment I personally support very much. Various signs now indicate that even China is urging Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Moreover, from today’s CPI data, we can see that U.S. inflation has not only surged significantly but also exceeded expectations. The market's response has been quite poor, leading to declines in U.S. stocks. This indicates that the Federal Reserve needs to reconsider interest rate cuts. Even if Waller successfully becomes the chair of the Federal Reserve, he cannot directly cut rates in this situation, so I always believe that the upside for oil prices is limited, while the potential for a decline is greater.

But the trouble is that the funding rate for shorting CLUSDT is quite high. Since opening a position last Sunday until now, my funding rate has already exceeded 12%. Yesterday I was just mentioning it, and it turned out to be correct; today it has resulted in a paper loss. In this situation, I don’t even know how long I can maintain the short position.

Looking at Bitcoin's data, today's pullback is still synchronized with U.S. stocks, still a residual effect of the surge in U.S. CPI data. This situation is very normal; the continuous outbreak of AI has made many investors overlook the impact of macro factors. This CPI data is likely a cold shower, forcing investors to face the issue of rising oil prices again.

Therefore, the future rise and fall of $BTC is highly likely still tied to the U.S.-Iran issue. Trump's pressure has increased, and during his visit to China, he hopes to bring back some good results, especially hoping that China can exert greater pressure on Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

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