⚡️I still highly recommend checking out the latest article by Xiaoh黑, the core message is summed up in one sentence:

AI arms race + war impact + de-globalization stockpiling will force the US and China to continue with monetary easing, $BTC and crypto will benefit from this wave of liquidity dividends, and we are already in a bull market!

I summarized his logic and key points:

1⃣ The AI arms race will continue to expand

Hayes believes that in the US-China AI arms race, tech companies will continuously absorb capital, while banks and central banks will cooperate to provide credit. AI investment will be overbuilt, but there’s no stopping in the short term.

2⃣ The AI narrative will inherently drive monetary easing

Data centers, electricity, chips, computing power, and model training all require massive amounts of funding, resulting in the continued expansion of dollar and yuan credit.

For crypto, the key is not whether AI can create miracles, but whether it will generate more fiat liquidity.

3⃣ War makes countries rethink reserve assets

He believes that war has exposed the issue of many countries holding too many US Treasury and dollar assets.

Therefore, the US attack on Iran is the starting point of the bull market, and countries will later reduce the simple holding of dollar financial assets, turning to building energy pipelines, defense, food, and commodity reserves. This will weaken foreign capital's long-term buying in US Treasuries and US stocks.

4⃣ The US can only continue to create dollars to support the financial market

Hayes believes the US will fill this gap by using dollar swap lines, relaxing bank capital regulations, and encouraging banks to hold more US Treasuries, which essentially still amounts to expanding the balance sheet and monetary easing.

5⃣ BTC will become a benefiting asset from this wave of liquidity expansion

He believes that after February 28, BTC has started to outperform gold and US tech stocks, and he estimates that BTC's low this year will be around $60,000, with a return to $126,000 being nearly certain.

6⃣ He clearly shifts to high-risk positions

Hayes said he would push his investment portfolio to the maximum risk exposure, unless there are significant changes in the macro environment. This is not a defensive period; it’s a bull market phase where one can just close their eyes and push the button.

In addition to already large positions in HYPE and ZEC, he also specifically mentioned NEAR, reasoning that the privacy narrative + Near intents may improve the protocol's cash flow, leading to a re-evaluation of the token.

The entire piece aligns very well with Hayes' quote from Consensus 2026:

AI destroys the middle class → Fed prints money → BTC $125K, 99% of Altcoins go to zero!

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