Key reminder to all cryptocurrency friends: At 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, the core data of the US CPI will be released, and there will also be a hearing for the Clarity Act and related events concerning Trump's visit to China on Thursday. Recently, there has been a flurry of news and numerous uncertainties, so Bitcoin is likely to experience significant volatility, and the short-term market will be very turbulent. Everyone must manage positions well and ensure risk control.

On-chain data:

1. Open Interest (OI) continues to decline, large-scale withdrawal of leverage funds

Since the contract position reached a peak on May 5, market leverage funds have been exiting. Data shows that the total open interest across the network has dropped from $29.09 billion to $26.84 billion, a total decrease of $2.255 billion, with an overall decline of 7.75%.

From the market perspective, the price is fluctuating sideways, and the open interest continues to decline, indicating that leverage funds in the market are actively reducing their positions to avoid risk, not a signal of capital building up and waiting for a breakout, making it difficult to achieve a trending market in the short term.

2. Funding rates show significant divergence, long and short disagreements continue to widen

Currently, the funding rates across the network are polarized, and market sentiment is extremely fragmented. The average funding rates for the leading platforms Binance and OKX have turned slightly positive, reported at +0.0045% and +0.001% respectively, shifting a bit from short to long; however, the overall network's composite funding rate remains negative (-0.00079%), indicating that the overall market still leans bearish, and the long-short game is becoming increasingly intense.

3. Mid to long-term net inflows into the ETF, short-term entry pace slows

The buying logic for institutions in the mid to long term remains unchanged. The BTC spot ETF has seen six consecutive weeks of net inflows, with a net inflow amount of $706 million last week. This is also the core support for a mildly bullish market in the medium term.

However, it should be noted that the recent inflow size has significantly decreased compared to previous peaks, as institutions are not accelerating their entry or aggressively buying in; they are merely maintaining a steady pace of acquisition, making it difficult for ETF funds to significantly drive the market up in the short term.

4. Mining companies continue to exert selling pressure, with clear resistance above

There is persistent selling pressure in the market, with the primary source being major mining companies. For example, MARA sold about $1.1 billion worth of Bitcoin in the first quarter, mainly to repay corporate debt. Currently, many mainstream mining companies continue to sell off, creating ongoing selling pressure that suppresses market prices and significantly hinders upward movement.

BTC daily chart now shows a typical shrinking volume sideways pattern, with the K-line closing particularly small, the body compressed, and the upper and lower shadow lines also very short. The price has been stuck around 81,500, with trading volume shrinking to only 2,957 coins, indicating a wait-and-see approach and low-volume anticipation for a change in trend. The range of 82,300 to 82,800 is a solid strong resistance level, coinciding with both a previous high point range and confluencing with the 0.618 Fibonacci pressure. If it cannot break through here with strong volume, the market is likely to continue grinding sideways or even turn down for a correction.

Looking at the order book, the sell orders above are gradually accumulating. The short positions have not yet officially acted, but many short orders have been pre-placed in anticipation. Here are the key levels: Strong resistance: 82,300—82,800. Current price reference: 81,500. Short-term support: 80,000—80,500. Core key support: 79,000—79,500.

Responsibility is an invisible breeze that quietly lifts every sail to navigate through waves. Great bulls never boast, yet they always stand steadfastly beside you through every journey that requires commitment. Sincerity does not need to be deliberately spoken; trust will be witnessed by time. Following the great bull, there is no need for excessive words; the account will give the best answer.

Public account: Great Bull Talks Market

This content is only for sharing market opinions and personal review thoughts, and does not constitute any investment advice.

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