As of around May 10, 2026, the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is approximately $1.617 trillion, surpassing Tesla's market capitalization of about $1.608 trillion for the first time. Bitcoin ranks 12th globally by asset market value, entering the top 15 global assets, marking a new milestone in this market cycle where "the scale of crypto assets benchmarks against top stocks." The leap in market capitalization levels resonates with the public bullish narrative from institutional sides: Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, stated in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin is expected to reach a new historical high within the next 12 months and mentioned that central banks incorporating Bitcoin into reserves is gradually becoming a trend. At the same time, market expectations for MicroStrategy potentially disclosing a new round of increased holdings are still brewing, and the signals from several types of traditional and "traditional-like" institutions for increased allocation make Bitcoin increasingly viewed as a "heavyweight asset" that can be held long-term on balance sheets, rather than merely a high-volatility trading target. On the price front, this cognitive reassessment does not mean that short-term risks have disappeared: Coinglass data shows that if Bitcoin breaks above $82,000, the potential liquidation scale of cumulative short positions on major centralized exchanges is about $464 million; if it drops below $79,000, the potential liquidation scale of long positions is about $585 million. The price is currently trapped in a leveraged area of "short squeeze above and long liquidation below," where any directional breakout could greatly amplify volatility in a short period and reshape the flow of capital in this market cycle.

Market Capitalization Surpassing Tesla: Elevation of Bitcoin's Asset Status

Outside the leveraged game above $80,000, the market capitalization coordinates are reshaping Bitcoin's asset label: as of around May 10, 2026, Bitcoin's total market capitalization is approximately $1.617 trillion, surpassing Tesla's approximately $1.608 trillion for the first time, moving up to 12th in the global asset market capitalization ranking and entering the top 15 asset category. Tesla has long been viewed as a representative of high beta technology growth stocks, and its market capitalization has been an important benchmark for "new economy assets." Bitcoin's overtaking at this juncture equals pushing itself from the realm of "alternative speculative targets" to an asset class that stands alongside major tech stocks, bringing its narrative closer to "heavyweight growth assets" rather than marginal risk assets.

For traditional institutions, this leap in market capitalization order is not merely a superficial maneuver; it directly influences the "threshold of admission" for asset allocation frameworks. When Bitcoin firmly stands above traditional large tech companies like Tesla, its legitimacy to be included in "large-cap growth assets" or "core risk asset baskets" is significantly enhanced. On one hand, it creates institutional space for passive tracking of large-cap or growth-style portfolios; on the other, it also increases the comfort level of active managers explaining their Bitcoin exposure to investment committees. On the macro trading front, Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is near its highs of the past five years, and the overall U.S. stock market is in a phase of warming risk appetite. Coupled with this market capitalization milestone, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a "macro pricing asset" that can be priced together with tech stocks based on interest rate expectations, liquidity cycles, and risk premiums, rather than being merely sensitive to narratives within the crypto space.

VanEck and MicroStrategy Buy-up Expectations

During the same time frame when Bitcoin first surpassed Tesla in market capitalization and was reclassified as a "macro pricing asset," VanEck and MicroStrategy are at the forefront of the bullish narrative. In an interview with CNBC, VanEck's head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, provided clear guidance on a price path with the expectation of "hitting historical highs within the next 12 months," and emphasized that "central banks incorporating Bitcoin into reserves is becoming a trend," although without naming specific countries or timelines. This statement itself does not change short-term supply and demand but reshapes the market's conception of "ultimate buyers" at the macro variable level: if potential marginal buyers are no longer just asset management funds and hedge funds in tech stocks, but also certain sovereign entities, the long-term demand curve shifts rightward in expectations, raising the reasonable valuation range extrapolated and passively lowering risk premiums and tolerable drawdown levels.

Echoing the "macro endorsement" is a more specific expectation for institutional buying. PANews reports that after Michael Saylor released information about the Bitcoin Tracker, the market generally bets that MicroStrategy may disclose a new round of increased holdings next week, although there has yet to be official confirmation and details on amounts. Given that MicroStrategy has repeatedly increased its Bitcoin holdings through public markets and convertible bonds in recent years, its holdings disclosure is long viewed as a bellwether for institutional buying. These expectations implant a layer of "buying on dips" imagination below the price. The public bullish call from VanEck and MicroStrategy's potential real buy expectations raises traders' judgment on the price center of Bitcoin over the next year, prompting many models to start assessing the current quotes with a higher "reasonable range." On the other hand, it compresses the space and time window for shorting—shorts not only have to hedge against macro fluctuations related to the Nasdaq but also must continuously guard against sudden buying from institutional asset allocation and corporate balance sheets. Thus, in a structure of "short squeeze above and long liquidation below" around $80,000, they are increasingly compelled to participate with more cautious leverage and shorter holding periods.

Increasing with Nasdaq: Crypto Continues to Follow the Stock Market

Matthew Sigel from VanEck mentioned in an interview that Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq index is nearing its highs of the past five years, which is also clearly indicated by PANews. In other words, this rebound is not "decoupling and taking off," but is deeply embedded within the risk structure of U.S. stocks, especially tech stocks. From early 2026 to early May, the Nasdaq was performing relatively robustly, and there was no systemic liquidation in the valuation of risk assets. In this external environment, Bitcoin is viewed more as a "high beta extension on tech stocks" for trading. If U.S. stocks do not collapse, Bitcoin has a fundamental base for rebound.

Futures and options data further supplements this narrative: briefings show that the current derivatives structure primarily consists of short covering and hedging, without exhibiting the typical "FOMO structure" of large-scale offensive long leverage. This means that, on one hand, prices are passively raised as the Nasdaq's risk appetite warms up, driving previously short positions to be forced to close. On the other hand, on-site funds are still using options, inverse contracts, and other tools to hedge against potential pullback, and the risk budget has not been entirely bet on chips like in a typical late bull market. In such a high correlation environment, Bitcoin continues to be treated as a "high beta tech index derivative": the upside is linked to the Nasdaq's risk appetite, while the downside is amplified by derivatives leverage and liquidation density. The trading logic essentially remains a magnified bet against U.S. stocks and global risk sentiment.

$82,000 Short Squeeze Above and $79,000 Long Liquidation Below

Within the trading framework of "Bitcoin = high beta tech index derivative," the distribution of derivatives liquidation is nearly equivalent to the "road signs" of short-term price paths. Coinglass' liquidation heat map shows that if Bitcoin effectively breaks above $82,000, approximately $464 million in cumulative shorts on major centralized exchanges will enter a passive liquidation zone, forming a typical structural short squeeze: passive buying of shorts, active buying pursuing higher prices, compounded by some short hedged positions being forced to stop-loss, easily amplifying trading volume and volatility in a short time. This set of data is based on estimates of open contracts and belongs to a single source, where metrics and timeliness have limitations, but it is sufficient to indicate that there is a "short dense minefield" above $82,000, and once triggered, the upside will be driven more by passive buying rather than by new fundamental capital inflows.

Conversely, near $79,000 below, there is a pile of approximately $585 million in potential long liquidations, forming a symmetrical "long liquidation zone." If the price breaks below this level, strong long liquidations will translate into selling pressure, compounded by active selling and position reductions, often triggering a chain reaction of price gaps and short-term intense volume. For leveraged funding on-site, this $79,000 to $82,000 pressure range directly influences opening and closing decisions on centralized exchanges: approaching the upper boundary, the willingness to leverage shorts is suppressed, and more positions are hedged through options against upward squeezing risks; approaching the lower boundary, longs tend to reduce leverage and increase margins to prevent passive liquidation. This rhythm of leverage contraction/expansion will transmit through liquidity to ETH and high beta altcoins: breaking above $82,000 often triggers rallies and magnified elasticity in ETH and altcoins, while breaking below $79,000 may easily lead to concentrated position reductions and passive selling across assets, making whichever direction gets penetrated first in this range a key observation point for judging whether short-term risk appetite in the crypto market is expanding or contracting.

From Milestone Market Capitalization to the Next Major Rally

With Bitcoin surpassing Tesla for the first time with a market capitalization of about $1.617 trillion compared to Tesla's approximately $1.608 trillion and ranking 12th globally in asset market value, this is not just an emotional event. It will directly enter the screening range of more institutions' "top N asset pools," changing some portfolio construction and risk control parameter settings, hence elevating Bitcoin's valuation anchor within the long-term asset pricing framework. Coupled with this, VanEck research head Matthew Sigel is bullish on new highs within the next 12 months on CNBC, emphasizing the mid to long-term narrative of "central banks incorporating reserves," and the market's expectation for MicroStrategy to potentially disclose a new round of increased holdings collectively constitute an imagination of "structural buying still to come," thereby increasing Bitcoin's weight in the global asset chain. However, the risk is that Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq has neared its highs of the past five years and, in the context of being traded as a high beta asset of tech stocks, should the Nasdaq weaken, Bitcoin's pullback is often amplified. Currently, the $79,000 to $82,000 range also overlaps with about $464 million in short liquidations and about $585 million in long liquidations, placing it in a technical gaming state of "squeezing above and trampling below." Moving forward, whether this market capitalization milestone can evolve into the starting point of a new major rally depends on whether Bitcoin can effectively break above the $82,000 liquidation zone, supported by Nasdaq trends, U.S. spot ETF fund flows, MicroStrategy's official disclosures, and higher-level reserve and allocation statements, while avoiding triggering large-scale long liquidations below $79,000.

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