Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_0210)

Last night, the U.S. Department of Defense officially launched a public website for UFO files, and released the first batch of government documents related to UAPs, unidentified flying objects, and suspected extraterrestrial life. According to public reports, this first batch consists of approximately 160 documents, including videos, photos, mission records, sighting reports, communication records, and historical files, involving multiple U.S. federal agencies such as NASA, the FBI, and the Department of Defense.

This batch of documents is not just abstract government reports, but contains a large amount of specific images and historical records. Among them, Apollo mission spacecraft had captured three abnormal light spots floating in the sky above the moon, and communication records from Apollo 17 also included discussions among astronauts about mysterious objects approaching the spacecraft. Another batch of materials indicates that unexplained unidentified objects have appeared in places such as the UAE, Greece, and Iraq.

More transmissible are the unresolved cases from the documents that are specific to certain images. A jellyfish-shaped object was once seen above the UAE, and some materials recorded suspected glowing spheres and unidentified flying objects shaped like octagons; the FBI also captured abnormal targets near U.S. military aircraft. A photo released by the U.S. Department of Defense also indicates that in September 2025, an unidentified object was spotted above the western United States.

A photo released by the U.S. Department of Defense claims to show an unidentified object above the western United States in September 2025 (photo source: U.S. Department of Defense)

Compared to pure text reports, these images and sighting records make it easier for the UFO discussion to spread rapidly, and make this release appear more like a concentrated showcase of “declassified files.”

However, the predictions made in the prediction market are much calmer than social media. After the first batch of UFO files were made public, the event probability on the prediction market predict.fun related to "Will the U.S. confirm the existence of aliens by December 31, 2026?" did not rise significantly due to this explosive news; the market did not directly interpret this disclosure as "the U.S. is about to confirm the existence of aliens," and the probability remains only at 20%.

Photo source: https://predict.fun/market/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027

So, why did this public release of UFO documents not significantly change the judgment of the prediction market?

The prediction market bets not on whether aliens exist, but on whether the U.S. government will admit it

Many people might think that the 20% probability means that the prediction market believes the probability of alien existence is only 20%. But this actually misunderstands the market itself.

The true transaction of markets like predict.fun is not whether extraterrestrial life exists in the universe but whether the U.S. government will clearly confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or alien technology before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026. According to the market settlement rules, only when the President of the United States, members of the U.S. Cabinet, members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or U.S. federal agencies explicitly make this statement will the market settle as Yes; otherwise, it will settle as No. The primary sources for settlement are official information from the U.S. government, and consensus formed from credible media reports will also be referenced.

This rule is crucial. It implies that a video of an unidentified flying object is not enough, a blurry photo is not enough, a record of astronaut communication is not enough, and military acknowledgment that some phenomena are currently unexplained is also not enough. What can truly trigger a Yes is if the U.S. officially speaks in sufficiently clear terms, admitting that extraterrestrial life or alien technology does indeed exist.

The public release of the documents simply presents more materials to the public, whereas official confirmation means the government is endorsing the conclusions. The former generates discussion, while the latter triggers settlement. There is a difficult line to cross between the two.

Public document release is not answer disclosure

This UFO document release is indeed not an ordinary information update. The U.S. Department of Defense has released relevant materials through a dedicated website and stated that more documents will continue to be released in batches. For the public, this means that UFO and UAP data that were previously scattered across different agencies, different eras, and different archival systems are being re-organized into an official entry. It makes discussions more concentrated and allows outsiders to more easily track what materials the U.S. government actually has.

However, from the currently disclosed content, this batch of documents seems more like presenting historical sightings, anomalous images, mission records, and old archives to the public rather than providing a unified explanation of these materials. The U.S. Department of Defense has not directly told the outside world “what this is,” but has released more unresolved cases, leaving judgment to the public.

This also puts this release in a delicate position. It increases transparency but does not change the nature of the events. The UFO discussion thus gains more material, but this material mainly expands the issues themselves rather than advancing unidentified phenomena towards alien confirmation.

For the prediction market, this document release seems more like a new starting point for observation, rather than evidence sufficient to rewrite the odds. It brings the UFO topic back to the main stage and gives subsequent document updates trading value; however, the first batch of materials primarily consists of historical records, sighting reports, and unresolved images, and what the market is truly waiting for is higher-level, harder-to-avoid, and more closely aligned with official definitions of key signals.

Is 20% an underestimate or an overestimate?

From an emotional perspective, 20% may be too low. After all, the release of UFO documents has already entered an official rhythm, and subsequent materials will continue to be released. If clearer military videos, higher-level internal records, or a more direct judgment from a federal agency emerge in the future, the Yes price may still be rapidly reassessed.

But from a market pricing perspective, 20% is not considered low. Because this betting market is not a matter that is open-ended, but rather one with a clear deadline. The market does not just have to determine whether the U.S. will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or alien technology, but also whether this confirmation will occur before the end of 2026.

Time itself is a threshold. Even if subsequent documents continue to be released, and even if more unresolved cases come into the public eye, it does not represent that the U.S. government will complete evidence review, internal coordination, and political assessment within a few months, and deliver a sufficiently clear conclusion. For the official system, continuing to disclose materials is one thing, but achieving a qualitative decision in a short time is another.

Thus, the current 20% probability appears more like a time-discounted tail pricing. It does not deny the possibility that subsequent documents may continue to create fluctuations, but it also indicates that the market does not believe that the first batch of public materials has changed the basic judgments of the events. For traders, the document release itself is not rare; what is truly rare is the key signal that can push official definitions before the end of this year. Before such a signal emerges, it is difficult for the Yes price to be pushed back up just based on document updates.

When UFOs enter the prediction market, the truth starts to have a price

The most worthy point of discussion in this event is no longer just a certain photo, a certain video, or a jellyfish-like object. UFOs have long oscillated between emotion, belief, and conspiracy narratives. Believers see more clues in each document release, while skeptics continue to emphasize insufficient evidence, misinterpretation, and technological noise. Both sides have debated for years but find it hard to truly convince each other because they are often discussing different questions.

The prediction market has pulled this question a step into reality. It does not attempt to answer whether there are other forms of life in the universe but refines the question to a more specific level—Will the U.S. government clearly acknowledge the existence of extraterrestrial life or alien technology before the end of this year? It transforms a previously difficult to ground imagination into an event that can be traded, settled, and adjusted continually with changing information.

So, this approximately 20% probability is not the final judgment on the existence of extraterrestrial life, but rather the market's judgment on whether the U.S. government will admit it before the end of this year. It truly reflects traders' comprehensive judgment on the evidence chain, official statements, and time window.

As the oldest human mystery enters the prediction market, the truth is no longer just something to wait for and discuss; it begins to be priced. UFOs may still hover in the sky, but when they are officially confirmed and when they transition from unknown phenomena to reality, it has all fallen into the betting market.

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