In the past two days, the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks have shown a clear inverse extreme, with one side continuing to reach new highs while the other side is under pressure and falling back. There are obvious signs of capital diversion, and the cryptocurrency market is exhibiting a phase of "blood extraction," which in turn has boosted the strong performance of U.S. stocks. Against this backdrop, macro variables are beginning to re-dominate the market rhythm, particularly with the upcoming non-farm payroll data expected today, which will become one of the key volatility points for May.

From an external perspective, the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have achieved some progress, and oil prices have significantly dropped by over 7%, weakening the logic of energy inflation. The "anti-inflation narrative" that previously supported the cryptocurrency market has been impacted. At the same time, there are market expectations that Kevin Warsh may succeed Powell, and historically, the three previous transitions of Federal Reserve chairs have coincided with significant corrections in Bitcoin, which has further intensified market caution.

Structurally, both the technical indicators and sentiment are overall still leaning towards bearish. The short-term cycle (8 hours) adjustment is nearing its end, but the 12-hour and daily levels remain in a bearish-dominated phase. However, the support structure below is still in place, and a one-sided collapse trend is not expected in the short term; instead, it resembles a period of directional choice within fluctuations.

The different outcomes of the non-farm payroll data will directly affect the market rhythm: if employment and wages cool down simultaneously, it will benefit expectations for interest rate cuts and provide support for BTC; if employment is strong and wages are heated, it will suppress expectations for interest rate cuts and create a headwind for risk assets; if the data shows a notable weakness, it may first trigger a "recession trade" leading to a short-term decline, followed by a rebound due to the rise in interest rate cut expectations.

In summary, we are currently at a critical stage of macro-driven and structural game overlapping. It is not advisable to heavily hold positions before and after the data release; waiting for directional confirmation signals before participating is the better strategy.

This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal views only. Due to inherent delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please exercise rational judgment and act cautiously.
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