The current market is in a phase of macro re-pricing driven by the movements of the dollar and interest rate paths. Although gold has recently experienced a noticeable pullback, the overall bull market structure remains intact. On one hand, the market is re-incorporating the risk of interest rate hikes this year, while on the other hand, there is a general expectation that the next Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh may adopt a more dovish policy stance, creating evident tension between the two, and indicating that the current market pricing for the interest rate path may be difficult to maintain. Once the market begins to correct this expectation, the dollar may weaken again, and real interest rates are likely to decline, thereby reopening upward space for gold.

From the trading signals perspective, quantitative models and trend models have recently strengthened in sync. Historical data shows that after the last 10 similar signals were triggered, gold's average increase over the following two months was about 12.8%, corresponding to a target price of around $5,306, with a historical win rate of approximately 70%. Meanwhile, the DXY attempted to break the 100 mark three times in July 2025, November 2025, and March 2026, but failed each time, indicating that the momentum for the dollar's rebound is weakening. Against this backdrop, this article argues that the current pullback is more of a phase adjustment rather than a trend reversal.

Dollar and Interest Rate Re-Pricing: The Core Logic of Gold Remains Unchanged

In the coming months, the most critical variable for gold remains the re-pricing of the U.S. interest rate path. Powell has confirmed that the FOMC meeting at the end of April will be his last as Chairman, and the FOMC meeting on June 17 will be Kevin Warsh's first meeting after taking office. Warsh has previously stated multiple times that the productivity improvements brought by AI have deflationary effects, and the market generally expects his policy stance to be more dovish compared to the current one.

However, at the same time, the market has completely eliminated the expectation of interest rate cuts this year and even started to price in a rate hike. This pricing logic itself has evident contradictions. If the June dot plot begins to refute the current expectation of "one rate hike this year," gold may rapidly re-price. The FOMC meeting on September 16 is also seen as a critical window; historically, after rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025, gold and Bitcoin both experienced significant increases.

At the same time, the expansion of U.S. debt and fiscal pressures are reinforcing the long-term logic for gold. Currently, the U.S. debt has reached $39 trillion, increasing by about $2.7 trillion since the passage of the "big and beautiful bill" in July 2025. Gold has already pulled back, but debt has not contracted. Once the market returns to the logic of liquidity and fiscal expansion, gold is likely to challenge historical highs again.

Technical Aspects and Funding Structure Improving in Sync: Gold May Enter a New Upward Phase

From a technical perspective, the current structure of gold remains relatively positive. During this pullback, gold prices have found significant support in the $4,300 to $4,400 range and further raised the low points in early May, stabilizing around $4,500. Continuously elevated low points indicate that the bull market structure is still intact. Currently, gold is in a narrow triangular convergence pattern, and once it breaks upwards, it is expected to challenge previous historical highs again.

Historically, gold has shown a pattern of advancing at increments of about $1,000, so $5,300 may become a reasonable target for the next stage, while $6,300 could potentially be a target later this year or next year. At the same time, several catalytic factors are gradually approaching in the coming months, including the "Trump-Xi Jinping" meeting in May, the June FOMC, the July BRICS summit, and the September U.S. fiscal cliff. As the market begins to re-price the dollar, interest rates, and liquidity paths, gold's relative advantage may be further strengthened.

Overall, although the current gold pullback has been noticeable, the trend structure has not been damaged. The weakening dollar, re-pricing of interest rates, global reserve diversification, and U.S. fiscal pressures are gradually forming a new macro resonance. Meanwhile, quantitative models and trend models have simultaneously strengthened, and several key catalytic factors will continue to manifest in the coming months. For the market, the key at this stage is no longer just short-term inflation fluctuations, but when the market returns to the logic of liquidity and policy easing. Once this process begins, gold may re-enter a new phase of accelerated upward movement.

The aforementioned opinions are from BIT on Target, Contact Us for the complete report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks; investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on information provided in this content.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。