Bitcoin price trend projection:

1. (Red trend): Continuous decline and bottoming pattern, probability range 50%-55%, also the current market's natural operating rhythm that aligns with gradually diminishing volume.

Trend characteristics: The willingness of capital to enter the market continues to cool, overall trading volume remains unable to effectively increase, the momentum of market rebound is weak, and it is highly likely to maintain a weak repeated oscillation in the 78000-80000 range, subsequently gradually testing the 75000-78000 key support zone.

Mindset reference: There is no need to excessively wait for a significant rebound recovery; when the market shows signs of weak upward movement and stagnation in the 79500-80500 range, one can establish a medium-term bearish layout strategy in response to structural pressure. If the market directly declines to retest the 78000 support area, one may consider taking some profits cautiously and then observe the effectiveness of the support and the subsequent strength of the market.

2. (Yellow trend): Double-top inducement for repair, probability range 35%-40%, representing a structurally rare high cost-performance trading opportunity.

Trend characteristics: After the market stabilizes and holds in the 78000-79000 range, it may experience a rebound due to short-term fundamental catalysts (such as CPI data falling short of expectations), followed by constructing a second peak in the 82000-84000 range to complete the final switch in the long-short pattern.

Mindset reference: For the first round of pressure at 79500-80500, a small position can be tried with a bearish strategy; the second peak at 82000-84000 is a key structural pressure zone, and once a top weakness signal appears, it becomes a priority area for positioning.

Key fundamental time reminder: On May 13 (Tuesday) at 20:30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve's April CPI inflation data will be released. The market's mainstream expectation: April CPI month-on-month +0.3%, year-on-year +2.4%; core CPI month-on-month +0.3%, year-on-year +2.8%.

Data interpretation logic: If the actual inflation data exceeds market expectations, it will strengthen the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy stance, exerting pressure on risk assets; if the data is below expectations, it may easily drive market sentiment recovery in the short term. From the overall atmosphere of the current market, I personally tend to believe that this CPI data is likely to be hawkish, which is basically consistent with the mainstream market judgment.

Public account: Big Bull Talks Market

This content is only for the exchange of market opinions and sharing of personal review thoughts; it does not constitute any investment advice.

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