Original Title: Bitcoin market dominance moves above 61%: Will altcoins follow?
Original Author: Trading View
Original Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: Bitcoin remains the main line of the current cryptocurrency market rebound. Over the past two months, BTC has risen about 36% from a low of $60,000, with its market dominance rising to over 61%, reaching a new high since November of last year. This indicates that while market sentiment has somewhat recovered, the capital flowing back first is still Bitcoin, not altcoins.
However, the altcoin market is also showing early signs of warming up. The trading volume of altcoins on Binance has increased from 31% in March to 49%, and the total market cap excluding BTC and ETH, TOTAL3, has rebounded to a two-month high. Meanwhile, some altcoins have regained their position above the 200-day moving average, and overall declines are also narrowing.
But this does not mean that the "altcoin season" has arrived. Although the AltSeason Index has rebounded to 28.6, it is still a long way from the strong altcoin cycle above 75. In other words, capital is spreading out from BTC and ETH, but the rotation remains gentle.
Altcoins have not fully launched yet; they are just emerging from the weakest phase. Currently, the market is still dominated by Bitcoin, and altcoins are in a recovery observation period. Moving forward, whether a real altcoin market can be formed depends on whether BTC can maintain stability and whether the trading volume and market cap of altcoins can continue to recover.
The following is the original text:
On Wednesday, Bitcoin's market dominance rose to 61%, the highest level since November 2025. This indicator has continued to rise from 58.44% at the beginning of April, indicating that the current upward trend is still more biased towards BTC rather than the broader cryptocurrency market.
Meanwhile, over the past two months, altcoin trading volume on Binance has grown to 49%; additionally, 12.6% of altcoins on Binance have regained their position above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
Bitcoin market dominance weekly trend chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Altcoins Showing Early Signs of Recovery
Crypto analyst Darkfost stated that since hitting a low of $60,000 on February 6, Bitcoin has risen 36% and pushed its market dominance up to 61.3%.
Although altcoins have been under pressure for most of this period, the TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has risen 17%, reaching a two-month high of $765 billion. The speed of recovery for altcoins is still lagging behind BTC, but several indicators have begun to improve.
TOTAL3 weekly trend chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
CryptoQuant data shows that trading activity in the altcoin market is slowly recovering. Comparing the trading volume of BTC and ETH futures on Binance, the proportion of altcoin trading volume rose to 49% on Wednesday, up from 31% in March. This change indicates that market participation beyond these two major cryptocurrency assets is increasing after months of concentrated capital flow towards Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Darkfost additionally noted that this round of capital switching is still relatively moderate, with a significant gap from the aggressive rotation phase seen in the previous altcoin market in 2024.
Altcoin trading volume proportion. Source: CryptoQuant
Exchange Volume Trends Indicate Capital Rotation
Market analyst CW8900 pointed out that the increase in trading activity on centralized exchanges (CEX) is another signal of improving market participation beyond Bitcoin.
According to this analyst, altcoin trading volume has continued to rise in recent weeks after excluding the top five cryptocurrencies by market cap.
CEX trading volume proportion compared to the top five cryptocurrencies. Source: CryptoQuant
The 90-day AltSeason Index has also risen to 28.6, marking the fastest recovery speed in several months. This index is used to measure whether the majority of altcoins outperform Bitcoin within a specific period. Generally, an index reading above 75 indicates a strong altcoin cycle. However, CW8900 added:
"This indicator also shows that there has not been a real altcoin season in this cycle. The period when the AltSeason Index peaked was in early 2024, but even then, compared to previous altcoin seasons, the value was relatively low."
CryptoQuant data also shows that after months of significant underperformance relative to Bitcoin, the overall condition of the altcoin market has improved. Currently, the average price of altcoins is 23.47% lower than their 200-day simple moving average, a notable recovery compared to a earlier level of 44.4% below the average during this cycle. Similar readings were observed at the end of the bear market in late 2022.
Changes in the average performance of altcoins compared to the 200-day simple moving average. Source: CryptoQuant
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