On May 6, 2026, what was originally just another mundane midweek trading day was interrupted in a matter of hours by three intertwined signals: on one side, market rumors of "Iran suspending nuclear enrichment under the US-Iran draft, the US lifting some sanctions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz" boosted energy easing expectations; on the other side, Trump dampened this optimism with the statement "it is too early to prepare or sign a peace agreement," causing oil price risk premiums to oscillate between the imagination of passage and blockade; at the same time, North American mining company Hut 8 reported revenues of approximately $71.01 million but a net loss of about $253 million, with an unrealized loss of approximately $296 million on the fair value of digital assets directly crushing accounting profits, yet supported by its long-term AI data center contract worth $16.8 billion; additionally, the US April ADP employment report showing only 109,000 new jobs, just barely touching the lower end of expectations, provided the Federal Reserve with a data excuse for "not being in a hurry to tighten further." Energy price expectations, interest rate outlook, and mining company profit models were rewritten on the same day: the direction of oil prices determines the electrical costs of global computing power and miners' selling pressures, ADP influences real interest rates and the dollar, amplifying BTC's identity oscillating between "digital gold" and high-beta assets, Hut 8's massive losses and AI transformation leverage mining company stock volatility onto on-chain sentiment. In channels such as ETF fund flows, on-chain dollar-anchored asset supply, and net inflows to exchanges, the risk preferences of BTC, ETH, and related funds may likely present a complex situation of directional misalignment and fluctuating sentiment.

US-Iran Agreement Oscillation: Oil Prices and Safe-Haven Sentiment

On May 6, the "optimistic version" of the US-Iran draft and Trump's statement of "it is too early" formed opposing narratives in the market. The draft concept indicated by market news is that Iran suspends nuclear enrichment, the US lifts some sanctions, and reopens the Strait of Hormuz; if this path is truly realized, it means that the risk premium of this globally critical energy route is expected to pull back, and the "fear of flow interruption" in crude oil and natural gas transportation is put on pause. However, on the same day, Trump publicly emphasized that it is "too early" to prepare or sign a peace agreement, reminding traders amidst the repeated nuclear negotiations since 2025 that geopolitical easing is still just an expectation, not a result; the geopolitical options above oil prices have not been fully hedged.

At a macro level, the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices and the ensuing demand for safe havens is being impacted: once the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and some sanctions lifted, if the market considers this path credible, theoretically, the risk premium on crude oil will decline, marginal risk aversion in the global market will decrease, and the allocation demand for traditional hedge assets like gold will be diminished, while the "digital gold" safe-haven attribute assigned to Bitcoin will also be discounted. On the other hand, easing geopolitical tensions will reinforce a "high-beta risk asset logic"—with energy and war's tail risks suppressed, capital will be more willing to extend duration and increase exposure to more volatile assets, viewing BTC and ETH as offensive chips under this logic. As a result, every piece of news related to the progress or setback of the US-Iran agreement will switch signals between oil price risk premiums and safe-haven sentiment, causing BTC to frequently oscillate between the narratives of being a "hedging tool" and a "high-leverage risk asset." Investors need to focus not just on the draft itself, but whether the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens and whether sanctions genuinely loosen, as these variables will directly reprice oil prices and risk preferences.

Hormuz and Power Costs: The Invisible Leverage of Miners

If the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens, the market will interpret it as a signal of global energy tension easing, leading to a downward shift in oil price risk premiums, in turn re-pricing the electricity costs behind the Bitcoin network. Bitcoin mining essentially translates electricity and hardware into hashing power; electricity accounts for a significant portion of miners' operational expenses, while miner revenue derives only from block rewards and transaction fees, making net profits highly sensitive to both coin prices and electricity prices. If the US-Iran draft ultimately materializes, suppressing oil and natural gas prices, the central price of mining electricity, predominantly from fossil fuels, would move downward, effectively adding a layer of "invisible leverage" to global PoW miners: with the same coin price, unit profit for hashing power increases, giving miners greater leeway to delay selling and choose to sell coins in batches at more favorable price points, thereby smoothing short-term market supply fluctuations and reducing passive selling pressure.

Conversely, if Trump's attitude signals another setback for the agreement, expectations for the passage through Hormuz will be dashed, and the oil price risk premium will rebound, raising global energy costs, which will first weigh on the batch of miners on the right side of the cost curve. If electricity prices rise but coin prices do not follow suit, high-cost mining enterprises and small to medium-sized mines will experience a rapid tightening of cash flows; historical experience indicates that these entities often concentrate on selling BTC at the most painful times to "keep afloat," potentially triggering machine shutdowns and forced liquidations of margin positions, amplifying the short-term market supply and resulting in downward price elasticity. In the current context of the US-Iran contest still unresolved, whether Hormuz is unobstructed has become a key macro variable determining the selling pressure rhythm of miners and the marginal seller structure for BTC.

Hut 8’s Massive Losses and $16.8 Billion AI Contract

While the market was still focused on oil prices and miners' electricity costs, North American mining company Hut 8’s quarterly report significantly disrupted the old model of "mining companies = BTC high-leverage long." The company recorded approximately $71.01 million in revenue for the first quarter of 2026 but reported a staggering net loss of approximately $253 million, particularly noting that about $296 million came from unrealized losses related to changes in the fair value of digital assets—which means that most of the "massive losses" were not cash outflows but rather accounting revaluations. This accounting amplification effect implies that as long as BTC volatility is sufficiently extreme, mining companies' profit statements will fluctuate between "huge profits/huge losses," while cash flows and capacity expansion rates may remain relatively stable, resulting in the secondary market witnessing dramatically volatile profit and loss figures, yet underlying mild operational realities. This directly alters traditional capital's perception distribution regarding "cryptocurrency on-chain risk" and "stock-level risk."

What is more contradictory is that Hut 8 also provided another narrative clue in the same disclosure: the total amount of long-term AI data center contracts is about $16.8 billion, locking in future revenue expectations for computational services, turning itself from a single Bitcoin mining company into a dual entity of "Bitcoin mining company + AI high-performance computing infrastructure." For macro capital, this means that mining company stock prices are no longer just trackers of BTC, but will also be powerfully driven by the AI valuation cycle: on one side, the volatility of digital asset fair value in the profit statement amplifies the price risk of BTC, while on the other side, the long-term AI contracts anchor future cash flows to the AI capital expenditure cycle. As a result, mining company stocks might evolve into a composite vehicle of "crypto β + AI β," which can serve as an alternative entry for traditional accounts to indirectly allocate BTC risk, and will be the most sensitive asset in hedging portfolios when BTC and AI sentiment are not synchronized. For funds already betting on BTC in futures and ETFs, whether to include or exclude miners like Hut 8 from their considerations will no longer merely be a judgment on BTC price direction but a pricing choice influenced by the new variables of "accounting volatility + AI long cycles."

Moderate ADP Jobs: Interest Rate Expectations and Price Risks

Compared to the extreme fluctuations in mining companies’ financial reports, the number of 109,000 new jobs in the US April ADP employment report appears much more restrained: it is above the previous low but only lands at the lower end of the 99,000 to 120,000 expected range. For traders focused on the Fed's path, this signifies that the labor market is "warming," yet far from "overheating." This pace does not support the hawkish narrative of "adding another hike," but it is also insufficient for the market to be confident in betting on a rapid opening of space for continuous rate cuts this year. Interest rate expectations have been pinned in a mildly dovish neutral position, while the upward pressure on actual US Treasury rates is suppressed but not completely reversed.

For long-duration high-beta assets like BTC and ETH, this combination of “moderate job growth + limited wage pressure” effectively places a ceiling on the most sensitive discount rate parameters in valuation models: actual interest rates are not forced to rise further but are also not at a level capable of substantial downward adjustments. The result is that the macro forces suppressing valuation pressures below coin prices are alleviated, while liquidity premiums above still need to await stronger easing signals. The more realistic trading implication is that ADP, as a leading indicator for non-farm payrolls, will become a crucial anchor point for betting on the direction of future Fed meetings in the days leading up to non-farm data releases. Every slight adjustment in the dollar index and actual interest rates will be reflected in intraday repricing of cryptocurrency risk preferences through ETF subscriptions and redemptions and on-chain fund movements. Moving forward, the market will focus not just on the next candlestick but on whether non-farm data validates this "moderate yet not hot" employment scenario, thereby determining if BTC and ETH can continue to enjoy this repair cycle supported by interest rate ceilings rather than liquidity floods.

From Oil Prices to AI Computing Power: What To Watch Next

In the coming weeks, the first indicators responding to the temperature of US-Iran negotiations will not be BTC candlesticks, but oil prices and energy stocks. Whether the Strait of Hormuz truly reopens will determine whether crude oil risk premiums fall back or rise again, while Trump's statement of "it is too early" implies that this line may turn back at any time. If oil prices decrease, global electricity cost pressures will ease, and Bitcoin mining profitability will marginally improve, leading to a slowdown in miners' forced selling rhythm, thus reducing passive supply shocks on BTC; however, if oil prices are reignited by geopolitical risks, energy stocks and traditional commodities may initially strengthen, creating a rise in risk aversion sentiment, where BTC’s "digital gold" narrative will be at odds with its high-beta characteristics, amplifying volatility without disappearing.

The second key observation should be the seesaw between mining stocks and AI concepts. Hut 8 achieved approximately $71.01 million in revenue in the first quarter but recorded approximately $296 million in unrealized losses attributed to changes in digital asset fair value, pulling a "massive pit" with a net loss of $253 million, while also revealing a $16.8 billion long-term AI data center contract, effectively nailing itself down with the dual label of "mining company + AI infrastructure." Whether mining stocks continue to follow BTC trends or are increasingly viewed as assets priced for AI computing power, and how their capital expenditure rhythms shift between Bitcoin mining and high-performance computing, will reveal how traditional capital reallocates risk within the triangle of "mining stocks–BTC spot–AI concepts." This will resonate with the interest rate narrative woven from ADP to non-farm data and statements from the Federal Reserve: the moderate reading of 109,000 in the April ADP offers justification to maintain high-interest rate vigilance, while subsequent data continuing to lower rate cut expectations could lead to a downward adjustment in the fair pricing range for BTC, ETH, and mainstream on-chain assets; conversely, if the interest rate ceiling is confirmed, long-duration high-beta assets would have more room for continued repair. All these macro narratives ultimately need to manifest in fund flows, where the expansion or contraction of the total amount of dollar-denominated on-chain assets, as well as net subscriptions and inflows for various BTC/ETH ETFs, will be key windows to test whether the "oil prices–mining companies–AI–interest rates" four lines truly alter the flow of crypto funds.

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