This is definitely something... but it isn't everything.

If Bitcoin is able to break above its 200-day MA cloud, then I'll have no choice but to get significantly less bearish.

Will I be outright bullish? Not yet...

That will come down to the 2-day 200 MA cloud.

The reason why I'll only be "less bearish" is because we've seen several failed breakout attempts above the 200-day MA cloud over the course of the 2023-2025.

These are the facts...

• The breakout in Aug.'23 failed & produced new lows

• The breakout in July'24 failed & produced new lows

• The breakout in Aug.'24 failed & swept the lows

• The breakouts in Mar.'25 failed & produced new lows

• The breakout in Oct.'25 failed & produced new lows

I've highlighted all of these cases in orange.

In all of those cases (except Oct.'25) Bitcoin got hit on the chin but was able to firm up, reaccelerate, and then produce new highs.

Because that's what bull markets typically do.

If any asset is going to trend higher, it will be able to stay above its 200-day MA cloud and be able to produce new highs, by very definition of what an uptrend is.

So here's the thing...

I'm still of the belief that Bitcoin is in a downtrend.

Why?

In the August 2023 - March 2025 cases that I cited above, Bitcoin was trading above its 2-day 200 MA cloud.

Today (and since Nov.'25), BTC is trading below its 2-day 200 MA cloud.

It's, by definition, a different environment.

That's why I'm hesitant to be outright bullish on a potential breakout above the 200-day MA cloud.

I'm going to reserve my outright bullishness for a breakout above the 2-day 200 MA cloud, which is the message that I've been sharing since the breakdown in November 2025.

I have to be consistent on my rules.

The interesting thing is this...

Let's assume a future where Bitcoin is going to get back above its 2-day 200 MA cloud and regain uptrend characteristics.

In that future, by definition, Bitcoin is going to have to break (and stay) above its 200-day MA cloud.

That's why I'm only getting less bearish here.

Step by step.

Maybe my caution is unnecessary.

That's totally fine with me, as I didn't sell any Bitcoin under $97k and was able to buy more sub-$70k.

I thought the bear market arrived in November.

I didn't know how long it would last or how low it would go.

All I knew was that the trend shifted from up to down.

And that proved to be true.

Trends change and it's our responsibility to be objective enough to acknowledge that shift and then optimize for how to invest in that new environment.

A breakout above the 200-day MA cloud is objectively a great sign for bulls and is highly constructive.

If it "sticks the landing", then price will break AND stay above the cloud, then continue to produce higher highs & higher lows, which will ensure a breakout above the 2-day 200 MA cloud.

If you want to use this breakout, in addition to the recent breakout above the short-term holder realized price, to get bullish, then I won't tell you that you're wrong... so long as you have a process.

Good luck.

Embrace nuance.

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