Answer this question:

At least from a historical perspective, Bitcoin's gap has a 96% probability of being filled. This is very different from randomly pointing to a price, because random pointing is not consensus, while a "gap" is a "consensus" that everyone can see. Of course, the reason for filling the gap is esoteric, but this esotericism can be explained with probability.

It then becomes a math problem. Assuming the probability of filling the gap under historical conditions is 96%, then the winning probability of adjusting positions for the gap is infinitely close to 96%, and the time frame is currently within three years.

This, in turn, becomes a ROI calculation formula: probability of filling the gap × profit potential - losses from not filling or first breaking through in the opposite direction - capital costs - time costs.

Assuming BTC is now $100,000, with a gap below at $80,000.

If you short BTC, aiming to fill the $80,000 gap:

If the gap is filled, you earn $20,000. If it rises in the opposite direction to $120,000, you hit your stop loss and lose $20,000.

Assuming the probability of filling the gap is indeed 96%.

Then the expected value of this trade is very high. However, if BTC first rises to $150,000 and then returns to $80,000 three years later, the gap would indeed be filled, but you may have already blown up your account.

This is why the probability of gap filling cannot be directly equated to trading winning rate.

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