Thanks to @Yin0813Hong for the reminder. Indeed, I overlooked the gap that occurred on April 7, 2026, on the daily $BTC chart, between $69,795 and $70,055. Since the gap amount was only $260, which is just a 0.37% difference compared to the price at that time, I ignored it. However, the reminder is correct; there is indeed a small gap at that position. Please forgive my fading eyesight.

Then I revisited the entire historical data. Although the difference is only 0.37%, historically, such small gaps have almost always been filled. From a probabilistic standpoint, if this gap is not filled within a month, that is, within this week, the likelihood of it being filled in the short term is not great. However, over a longer period, the probability of it being filled is still quite high.

In simpler terms, from a probability perspective, the price of Bitcoin is very likely to return to $70,000 within the next year, with a probability of about 95% of returning to $70,000.

This is merely a probability, and not a bearish view. Do not take it too seriously.

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