Expectations around U.S. monetary policy are shifting, but bitcoin BTC$80,592.79 appears increasingly indifferent. The cryptocurrency has pushed past the $80,000 mark, signaling that macro headwinds tied to interest rates may be losing their grip on price action.

A growing number of major brokerages now expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady through the year, a marked change from the earlier expectations of at least two rate cuts. Barclays joined peers in scrapping its earlier forecast for a rate cut on Monday, pointing to persistently high energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran as an inflationary development. Other global firms, including JPMorgan, have similarly pushed back against expectations of policy easing.

Under normal circumstances, a higher-for-longer rate outlook would weigh on risk assets. Still, BTC continues to gain ground. Some analysts argue the asset is increasingly being treated as a hedge against inflation, supported by continued inflows into spot ETFs even as inflation fears mount. Others remain skeptical, attributing the rally more to strength in equities than to any structural shift in crypto demand.

For now, momentum appears to favor the bulls.

"From a market structure standpoint, we are seeing traders closely watch the $81,500 resistance level, while the CME futures gap around $84,000 remains a key zone for potential upside. These technical levels, combined with macro developments, will likely guide near-term price action," said Ashish Singhal, co-founder of the FIU-registered CoinSwitch exchange.

Technical indicators reinforce that view. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is often seen as a dividing line between longer-term bearish and bullish trends, is located near $83,430. So, a decisive move above it could strengthen the case for further upside.

The broader market is also showing signs of selective strength. Bitcoin’s roughly 2% gain to around $80,700 has been accompanied by outsized moves in certain altcoins. Toncoin (TON) has surged about 35%, while MORPHO and PENGU have gained 11% and 9%, respectively. On the weaker side, Dash has slipped slightly. Larger tokens such as ether, XRP, and solana have largely tracked bitcoin’s modest advance.

At the same time, sentiment is sitting at a critical juncture. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has climbed to 50, right at the midpoint of its range, a level last seen in mid-January.

"The market is approaching a significant turning point. Since last October, there have been only brief surges in sentiment to higher levels, but these have provided excellent opportunities for bears to sell at higher prices," said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

What’s trending

Brent holds near $114 a barrel as Middle East tensions rage on (Reuters): Brent crude futures eased 93 ​cents, or 0.8%, to $113.51 per barrel after settling up 5.8% on Monday. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.16, or 2%, to $104.26, after gaining 4.4% in the ⁠previous session.

Maersk says ship passed through Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military protection (CNBC): Maersk said one of its commercial vessels, stranded at sea since the start of the war on Feb. 28, successfully transited through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military protection.

'A deal is a deal': Von der Leyen hits back at Trump's latest tariff threat (euronews): The European Union is "prepared for every scenario" if Donald Trump unilaterally hikes tariffs on EU-made cars, says Ursula von der Leyen.

China steps up U.S. sanctions fight, defying blacklisting over Iranian oil (The Wall Street Journal): China escalated its fight against the U.S. over Iranian oil, defying American sanctions in a show of resistance ahead of President Trump’s visit to Beijing planned for next week.

Today’s signal

After a sharp sell-off to nearly $60,000 earlier this year, bitcoin has steadily climbed back above $80,000 within a well-defined, textbook rising channel, marked by a consistent pattern of higher lows and higher highs.

Prices are now pushing against the upper boundary of that channel, a level that can act as short-term resistance where rallies can stall or pull back.

A decisive breakout above the upper boundary could trigger stronger momentum and potential speculative frenzy toward $100,000. However, repeated rejection at this level could send prices back toward $70,000 or lower.

In short, bulls are in control right now, with prices nearing a key technical test.