Previously, we talked about the probability of filling gaps. Now, the gap between $79,660 and $81,210 for BTC was generated on February 2, 2026, and was completely filled by May 5, 2026, taking three months. I have statistically found that the probability of filling gaps within a year is the highest; beyond a year, it's uncertain.

As of now, the short-term gaps for Bitcoin have all been filled, and what remains are:

One is the gap between $20,330 and $21,110 on March 10, 2023, which has not been filled.

The other is the gap between $9,665 and $9,850 on July 24, 2020, which has not been filled.

I calculated a rough probability from the historical gap data from the Bitcoin daily line at CME.

1. The historical gap filling rate is approximately 96%.

2. The probability of filling the gap within a week after it occurs is around 57%.

3. The probability of filling the gap within two weeks after it occurs is around 66%.

4. The probability of filling the gap within three weeks after it occurs is around 85%.

5. The probability of filling the gap within one year after it occurs exceeds 90%.

The gap with the longest duration in my statistics is the one from December 28, 2020, which was not filled until June 13, 2022, taking 18 months to fill.

Although I always say filling gaps is a metaphysical matter, the probability of such gaps being filled is indeed quite high.

So for this trade, I initially bought the spot at $78,000, hoping that this gap would be filled within three weeks. In the end, I waited a full three months. At the current price of $80,600, that gives an annualized return of 13.3%, which is somewhat acceptable.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。