Bitcoin currently has a clearshort squeeze correction risk, and the market is likely to first digest the crowded short positions above the 80,000 mark. After this wave of emotional pulse, it is hoped that a formal weekly-level adjustment and major downward trend can begin. The core reason lies in thedivergence between volume and price, and the overall buying support in the spot market is weak.

1. Funding Rate and Position Structure

The average funding rate across the network for 8 hours remains around -0.0034%, consistently negative over the long term, leading to the cost of short positions rising continuously. The total position amount fluctuates between 38-40 billion USD and remains at a historically relatively high level. Continuous negative rates + high positions represent a typical crowded short structure, where the cost of short positions keeps accumulating, which itself provides the conditions for triggering a short-termsqueeze; however, to achieve a strong upward movement, there must be accompanying buying in the spot market, and one cannot blindly determine the trend based solely on a reversal of the funding rate.

2. Daily Volume-Price Divergence, Spot Transaction Continues to Be Sluggish

This rebound is mainly driven by contract funds, while the actual spot buying is severely lagging, with transaction volume dropping to a multi-month low. The transaction volume on leading platforms has decreased by about 25 billion USD this month, and the daily trading volume is gradually shrinking, forming a clearvolume-price divergence pattern.

Even if there is a short-term rise trying to test the area above 80,000 based on the short squeeze sentiment, due to insufficient support in the spot market and factors like institutional market makers controlling the market, the weekly fourth wave rebound is likely to end here, leading to the main decline of the fifth wave adjustment.

Short-term traders can focus on the 79,000–79,500 resistance area to position when prices rise, with the key risk control level being around the 80,000 whole number as expected. For long-term investors, the areas around and above 80,000 remain the most favorable positions for setting up short positions in terms of cost-effectiveness andrisk-reward ratio.

A reminder: If the subsequent market borrows the inertial impulse of the short squeeze to surpass the 80,000 mark, do not blindly chase heights. This position can easily trigger a key change in market direction, with risks far outweighing opportunities.

Yesterday's Bitcoin long positions were accurately entered at the intraday low range; however, the subsequent upward momentum was less than expected, failing to trigger the profit target, and the current position remains in a floating profit state.

Warm reminder: This is only a replay of the market funds and volume-price structure logic, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly volatile, please treat it rationally and strictly control position risks.

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