Here are some different viewpoints:
1. It is not just the United States; the uncontrolled rise in oil prices is not good for major consuming countries, manufacturing countries, or American inflation. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, clearly shows the impact on U.S. inflation, and even expectations for a recession in the U.S. are increasing.
High oil prices (gasoline + diesel) lead to rising inflation, which is the same for any country.
2. The UAE's exit from OPEC+ does not mean it can produce without limit; there are capacity limits and export channel restrictions. It is expected that in the future, the UAE will have the opportunity to gradually increase from the previous quota level of about 3.4 million barrels per day to above 4.5 million barrels per day.
Moreover, unlimited production is not necessarily a good thing for oil-producing countries. The best scenario is for oil production to be slightly above or below the total global demand.
3. Oil prices are not determined by the dollar; the dollar is merely the primary pricing and settlement tool. The price of oil mainly depends on global market supply and demand; when demand exceeds supply, the probability of rising prices increases, while when demand is less than supply, the probability of falling prices increases.
This is also why the price was around $70 before and after the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and over $90 afterwards.
4. If the U.S. squeezes the energy supply causing oil prices to rise, the corresponding result will be an explosion in renewable energy. If oil prices rise above $200 for an extended period, the most direct outcome will be a faster global push towards electric vehicles, energy storage, nuclear power, and natural gas.
The IEA predicts that over the next decade, electric vehicles will replace about 5.4 million barrels per day of oil demand. Therefore, long-term high oil prices may accelerate the replacement of oil demand.
5. The current support for WTI at high levels mainly stems from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has hindered tanker passage and exports. Once the shipping routes are restored, oil prices will return from war premiums to being determined by supply and demand.
There is no need to mention other shipping routes.
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