Bitcoin once again charged toward 80,000. Since the end of March, nearly a month and a half leading into May, Lao Cui has been shouting about the arrival of 80,000. Many of you might feel somewhat weary, and instead of continuing toward 80,000, Lao Cui began to hesitate. This hesitation is not about the recent market trends but rather how Bitcoin should progress after reaching 80,000. Even until now, the continuous upward trend over the past two months has not completely changed everyone's view on the future market; the current market still predominantly leans toward bearish sentiment. Moreover, most analysts and institutions still generally look towards a new low. Regardless of the four-year cycle or various technical factions, everyone is pointing this year's new low to the 45,000-55,000 range. It seems Bitcoin can never reach a new high without first achieving this new low. Lao Cui himself does not understand this view; must there be such a dynamic between new lows and new highs to create a virtuous cycle in everyone's eyes?

Lao Cui has interacted with many users. Since 60,000, those who are bearish have remained bearish; Lao Cui mentioned the new low of 60,000, which attracted countless haters. These people completely ignore the different nature of participating users after the 2024 ETF approval, the differences in macro fundamentals for each cycle, the continuous new highs in the U.S. stock market, the fundamental changes in the cryptocurrency industry, and the changes in Bitcoin's supply and demand, which are no longer entirely influenced by block halving. Even in terms of technical feedback, after breaking through the downward trend and surpassing critical pressure points, they still stubbornly insist on their views. Is Bitcoin, influenced by the grayscale era, BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and even the mainstream shadows of the U.S., still a mere product? Those looking for new lows really need to have a calm reflection, and Lao Cui reminds everyone not to blindly expect bullish outcomes; the current trend will still oscillate upward.

Many friends do not understand why, in the upward process, Lao Cui instead entered the market with short positions. This is a basic logical operation, as Lao Cui and most of his users are largely stuck in spot positions, seeking hedges through contracts. The spot and contract markets should never be aligned. Lao Cui's own contract approach is still focused on medium-term strategies, but the advice given to everyone is to enter and exit within the same day. Most users reading Lao Cui's articles hold views contrary to many of our thoughts; Lao Cui can only provide the most suitable entry points for everyone. Don't think that a rebound to the 80,000 mark is a positive signal; at least at this stage, Lao Cui still believes that bears occupy a dominant position. Continuous growth over several days, or even a week-long increase, can collapse entirely with any negative news. A week’s gain of 5,000 points is merely the result of the bears' efforts for a single day, and currently, the bears are indeed stronger. Therefore, since the new low, Lao Cui has defined the medium-term position as oscillating upward, with opportunities for both long and short trades. In the past two days, the given market price orders have been easier to profit from, with 500 points of profit more easily grasped. With Ethereum, entering and exiting on the same day can only keep profits around 20 points; currently, the market cannot afford excessive greed.

Lao Cui summarizes: Considering the short-term market trends, this sudden drop will surely come again, and the risk for short positions is gradually increasing. The current launch in the cryptocurrency market requires cooperation from all currencies, and everyone should focus on observing fluctuations in smaller coins, which refer to coins that are already listed and have small market caps. After Bitcoin's upward surge, there has been a noticeable stagnation, which also affects the rally of smaller coins. So far, it can be seen that the growth of smaller coins is weak. On-chain data performance has been relatively prominent, but the performance on price indicates that a downturn will indeed appear (referring to Bitcoin). This drop will not create a new low; looking back at Bitcoin requires combining it with bearish news, and at least a decline of around 5,000 points will occur. So if anyone holds long or short positions that need to be resolved, you must grasp this fluctuation well; don't think about earning profits first, think about how to preserve the capital first. Users wanting to enter contracts in the short term can wait until this growth ends to capture the downward trend. Again, I remind everyone not to look for a new low; there will be no new low this time; the 60,000 mark is the turning point!

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Currency. For assistance, feel free to contact directly.

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