Author: Liu Jiaolian

1. Interest Rates Unchanged, Disagreement Sets 34-Year Record

In the early morning of April 30, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the decision from the April FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive time it has stayed put.

This was entirely in line with market expectations. What truly surprised the market was the voting result.

Of the 12 voting members, 4 voted against the decision. This is the highest number of dissenters at a Federal Reserve meeting since 1992 [1].

How was the opposition divided? Into two groups.

One group is Board Member Miran, who has been advocating for a rate cut since joining the Federal Reserve last September. This time, he continued to argue for a 25 basis point reduction.

The other group consists of three regional Fed presidents—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan. They support not cutting rates but oppose keeping the statement's dovish tone. The so-called dovish tone refers to the line that has been used for two years: if risks emerge, the committee will be prepared to adjust the monetary policy stance. These three believe that this statement implies a higher likelihood of rate cuts than of hikes, and that this signal should not be maintained anymore [1].

Simply put: Some are pushing for a rate cut, while others are pushing to remove the rate cut option from the table.

The attitudes are entirely opposite, but the conclusion is the same: dissent.

This is the current situation of the Federal Reserve, being pulled in opposite directions by two forces and unable to move forward.

Let’s look at the changes in the wording of the statement. The Federal Reserve changed its description of inflation from "slightly elevated" to "still elevated," and explicitly stated that part of this is due to the recent rise in global energy prices. Developments in the Middle East have been officially listed as a source of high uncertainty in the economic outlook [2].

Powell candidly stated during the press conference: both aspects of the dual mandate are at risk. We cannot say that inflation is completely under control, nor can we say that the labor market does not need nurturing. Risks on both sides need to be monitored, which means the policy can only remain in place [1].

2. After the Sharp Decline, Who is Buying?

Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma observed a key piece of data—global buy-sell order ratios soared to 0.3 after the FOMC, one of the highest values in the year. At the same time, open interest declined during the drop, and the funding rate remained neutral [2].

His conclusion is: this is a classic post-FOMC position adjustment and stop-loss hunting behavior, not a panic sell-off. BTC quickly reclaimed its losses within hours, indicating that buying support is still present [2].

Glassnode’s on-chain data also confirms this from another angle. Traders increased bearish leveraged positions before the FOMC, but a divergence emerged in the cumulative trading volume between the spot and futures markets—this indicates that while short leveraged positions are increasing, spot holders are not panic selling [3].

However, Glassnode also pointed out that BTC is currently stuck below the market average. The 65k-70k range forms a solid bottom support area, but weak demand is preventing a sustainable rebound [3].

In simple terms: Some want to push it down but can't; some want to pull it up but also can't. BTC is oscillating in a narrow range around 75k, waiting for the next catalyst.

3. Powell Remains As a Board Member—The First Time Since 1948

More interesting than the FOMC itself is Jerome Powell's statement during his last press conference as chair:

“After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a board member for some time. I plan to keep a low profile.”

What does this mean? Powell’s 14-year term as a board member will not end until January 2028. He chose to remain as a board member after stepping down as chair, which is the first time since 1948 that a Federal Reserve chair has done so [4].

Historically, nearly all Federal Reserve chairs resign from board positions when they leave office. Powell breaks this 78-year tradition.

Why?

The answer lies in the DOJ investigation. The U.S. Department of Justice previously launched a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation project—Powell himself proactively submitted this matter to the Fed's inspector general. On April 24, the criminal investigation was just closed. Powell made it clear: I will not leave the board until the investigation is completely and thoroughly concluded [4].

This is a position he is taking to safeguard the independence of the Federal Reserve.

At the same time, Kevin Warsh was approved by the Senate Banking Committee with a vote of 13-11 on April 29 [1], and he is expected to receive full Senate confirmation in the week of May 11, officially becoming the next Federal Reserve chair.

This means that starting in mid-May, there will be a rare pattern at the Federal Reserve: new chair Warsh leading the decision-making, with former chair Powell remaining at the table as a regular board member.

4. Will the New Chair's Curse Recur?

Crypto analyst CRYPTOWZRD reminded of a historical pattern: every time a new Federal Reserve chair takes office, Bitcoin usually goes through a correction for several months [6].

What happened when Powell was re-elected in 2022? In May 2022, the Federal Reserve began the rate hike cycle, and BTC dropped from about 40k to 16k by the end of the year. What about when Powell first took office in 2018? BTC fell from 17k to around 3k.

Of course, history does not repeat itself simply. The context of Warsh taking over is different from before—interest rates are already at a high of 3.5%-3.75%, and the market generally expects rate cuts to begin in the second half of the year. However, the pace and timing are still full of uncertainty.

Warsh was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee with a vote of 13-11 [1], which itself indicates that his policy stance carries controversy. The market will closely watch his first statement after taking office—whether he will continue Powell’s cautious approach or release more dovish or hawkish signals?

Willy Woo’s assessment of BTC’s recent trend is that it needs to close above 79k (the recent average cost basis for investors) to confirm a rebound trend. He gives it a probability of only 30% [5].

5. The Significance of 75k

From a technical perspective, the 75k position carries multiple meanings:

- It is the location of the 20-day EMA and 20-day SMA.

- It is the position that bears attempted to breach but failed to hold below after the FOMC.

- It is the point where the market shifts from "selling the news" to re-evaluation.

If BTC can stabilize above 75k and gradually reclaim the 76.5k-77k range, the recent rebound trend is likely to continue. If it drops again and tests 70k or even 65k, it means the market needs more time to digest the policy uncertainty at the beginning of Warsh's term.

Glassnode gives a bottom support range of 65k-70k, based on an on-chain cost basis model—most short-term holders’ costs are concentrated in this range [3].

6. Conclusion

Every change in the Federal Reserve brings an adjustment period for the market.

Powell remains while Warsh is about to take the stage. One is the first time since 1948, and the other comes with a controversial vote of 13-11. The combination of these two signals at least indicates one thing: the path of monetary policy in the coming months may not be as smooth as the market expects.

For Bitcoin, 75k is both a technical threshold and a psychological barrier. It is not only a short-term support test but also a touchstone to determine whether the new chair's curse can be broken.

The market will not remain ambiguous forever. Catalysts often lie hidden in plain sight.

References:

[1] Wallstreet.cn, "Powell's Farewell Meeting Witnesses 34-Year Largest Disagreement, Fed Remains Steady Again," Apr 30, 2026. [Link](https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771302)

[2] Cointelegraph, "Bitcoin Recovery Stalls After Fed Holds Interest Rates, Citing 'Uncertainty' in Middle East," Apr 30, 2026. [Link](https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-recovery-stalls-after-fed-holds-interest-rates-citing-uncertainty-in-middle-east)

[3] Glassnode, "The Week On-Chain - Week 17, 2026," Apr 30, 2026. [Link](https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-17-2026/)

[4] Bitcoin.com News, "Powell Keeps Fed Governor Role Past May 15 in First Such Move Since 1948," Apr 30, 2026. [Link](https://news.bitcoin.com/powell-keeps-fed-governor-role-past-may-15-in-first-such-move-since-1948/)

[5] Willy Woo, X Post, Apr 28, 2026. [Link](https://x.com/i/status/2048961097106165907)

[6] CRYPTOWZRD, X Post, Apr 29, 2026. [Link](https://x.com/cryptoWZRD_/status/2049209334383480914)

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