Today, the price of WTI nearly surged to 109 dollars, and I have successfully continued to add positions at 106 dollars. As for whether I can follow the script and touch the control of the Strait of Hormuz, I do not know. However, I believe that 120 dollars should be the short-term ceiling for WTI. I find it hard to imagine that when the war stops, the oil price can be higher than during the war. Of course, to be on the safe side, I have continued to raise the liquidation price for oil.
I need to say that this is just my personal opinion. I have detailed the reasons for my short position on WTI in today's tweet. Whether I can profit from going short is uncertain, but I believe that as long as the United States and Iran do not continue the war, the smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz is only a matter of time. Of course, I cannot be sure that I am right, but this is what I am doing. If I am wrong, I will take responsibility for my decision.
Additionally, there was Powell's speech and the Federal Reserve's meeting today. The results were as expected, with no new predictions for the future. However, I personally feel that Powell is quite dovish and does not believe there will be room for interest rate hikes in the near future. He also seems very friendly towards the successor to Waller; at least I did not see anything hawkish. Indeed, inflation in the United States is increasing, oil prices are rising, and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged is in line with market expectations.
Returning to the Bitcoin data, although the price of $BTC continues to fluctuate downward, there are no signs of panic among investors. In fact, the turnover rate is decreasing, indicating that more investors are not interested in participating in the trading. The current chip structure remains very strong, and there are no signs of panic among early-stage investors.
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