Everyone always asks me if I use on-chain data.

Realized price is the only thing that actually matters to me.

We can look at STHRP, which measures the rolling cost basis of all Bitcoin over the past 155 days.

Price > STHRP? Uptrend and/or strong bull market.

Price < STHRP? Downtrend and/or strong bear market.

You'll also notice that it can work as dynamic support or dynamic resistance, depending on the market regime.

Was this just a relief rally into the STHRP, bringing recent buyers back to breakeven and then setting up for the next leg lower?

Only time will tell.

The one thing I know for certain is this...

If bulls want a strong argument, based on data, then they will have to break (and stay) above this dynamic level.

Good luck to all.

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