Written by: Fang Dao

“The bottom has not yet arrived.”

This is the easiest judgment to accept in the current market. Analyst Benjamin Cowen's path based on historical cycles remains clear—Bitcoin typically bottoms about a year after the peak, which suggests that the low of this cycle is more likely to occur at the end of 2026.

The reason this logic holds is that past cycles always unfold along the same path: emotions are amplified at the top, leverage accumulates, and eventually gets cleared in a liquidity contraction.

But the current market issue is not the timing, but whether this path itself is still intact.

In this cycle, there has not been the equivalent retail frenzy seen in previous cycles, nor has there been the same level of leveraged buildup. Prices reached highs, but there was no extreme emotional release.

When the market enters an adjustment phase, the lack of sufficient “forced selling” makes it difficult to trigger the familiar liquidity collapse.

This is why, while discussing that the bottom has not been reached, prices continue to maintain resilience in the range of seventy-five to seventy-eight thousand.

The market has not rejected a decline, but simply lacks the conditions for one.

This change has led to a distortion of the cycle. Past bottoms were often formed by severe liquidations, but now they are more likely to be completed gradually through time and structural digestion. Prices no longer plunge quickly but adjust repeatedly within a range.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is being priced in a more complex macro environment for the first time.

Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in energy prices, it has neither fully followed the downward trend of risk assets nor acted as a traditional safe-haven tool, but rather has remained relatively stable amid fluctuations.

This feels more like a test.

The market is verifying whether Bitcoin is still entirely constrained by its own cycle or has begun to possess the ability to operate independently amid external shocks.

If the cycle still dominates everything, then macro variables will only amplify the existing trend; but current performance indicates that prices are gradually diverging from a single internal logic and starting to be influenced by broader factors.

Deeper changes are happening in the holding structure.

In the past, Bitcoin's price was mainly determined by trading behavior, but now, more and more chips are entering corporate balance sheets and institutional allocation systems.

The characteristic of these funds is a longer holding period and higher exit costs.

When the chips in the market no longer frequently circulate, prices no longer rely on dramatic fluctuations for rebalancing, but rather adjust gradually through slower movements.

This also changes the source of returns. In the past, profits were generated from volatility, while now, they come more from the allocation itself. The trigger conditions for extreme market conditions have been raised, while the price center gradually stabilizes.

In such an environment, the question of whether the “bottom has arrived” begins to lose significance. This is because the bottom essentially relies on a clear emotional reversal, while the current market is losing the structural conditions to form such a reversal.

Returning to the seventy-eight thousand position. It is not just a price range, but rather the intersection of two logics. On one side are traders still using historical experience to wait for a bottom; on the other side are funds that have begun to revalue according to asset allocation.

Analysts' judgments remain valid, but the premises on which they rely are changing. The market has not denied the cycle; it is simply redefining the cycle.

References

Benzinga Report

Benjamin Cowen's Insights Organized

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