Against the backdrop of the current extremely fragmented global macro situation, the continuous escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East sharply contrasts with the rapid advancement of the AI computing power revolution. On one side is the shadow of war in the Strait of Hormuz, while on the other, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has set a record for the longest consecutive rise since 1994. In such an extreme polarized market, investors cannot help but ask: How to correctly go long on tech stocks while guarding against geopolitical black swans?

 

This article will take Micron Technology (MU), which has recently led the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, as a starting point to deeply analyze the trading logic behind this wave of tech stocks' "primary rising trend" from the macro environment, industrial logic to technical trends.

Macro Environment: The Extreme Tension Between Geopolitical Crisis and AI Belief

Recently, the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Middle East has become the Damocles sword hanging over global risk assets. According to Jin10 News, another incident of a cargo ship being shelled occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. Central Command has confirmed that it is carrying out blockade operations in the Middle East and globally. Trump even publicly stated that he is prepared to bomb Iran. These geopolitical black swan events have directly led to a rise in risk aversion, with the CEO of Victor Energy warning that the war with Iran has caused a daily decline in oil demand by 4 million barrels.

However, in such a severe external environment, the U.S. stock tech sector has shown astonishing resilience. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has recently risen for 16 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of 39%, setting a record for the longest consecutive rise in nearly 30 years. Among them, Micron Technology led the entire sector with a single-day increase of 8.48%.

This "contrasting situation" essentially reflects the strong confidence of capital in the AI industry trend. As geopolitical crises may lead to disruptions in traditional supply chains and inflation expectations rise again, core targets in AI computing power, with high technological barriers and strong performance certainty, have become a "bunker" for capital seeking risk aversion.

Industrial Logic: The Value Reassessment from "Cyclical Stocks" to "AI Infrastructure"

Micron Technology's recent strong breakout is not merely a rebound from overselling; a fundamental reconstruction of its underlying pricing logic has occurred.

In the past, the market typically viewed Micron as a typical "memory cyclical stock," with its performance highly dependent on fluctuations in consumer electronics demand. However, now, with the explosive growth of AI large models, high bandwidth memory (HBM) has become a key component to break the computing power bottleneck.

In-depth market analysis indicates that HBM demand is showing nonlinear growth alongside the expansion of large models. On the supply side, the global memory market is highly monopolized by three giants. This "demand explosion + supply limitation" pattern has led Micron not only to experience a surge in shipment volume but also to gain strong pricing power, entering a "golden channel" of "both quantity and price rising."

Moreover, even as market concerns about an "AI bubble" continue to rise, Micron, as the "water seller" of underlying computing power, has its performance elasticity directly tied to computing power demand itself, rather than the specific rhythm of AI application implementation. This endows it with strong risk resistance capabilities. Additionally, amid increasing geopolitical uncertainties, Micron's production capacity layout in the U.S. is anticipated to benefit from localization policies in the supply chain, gaining additional "certainty premium."

Technical Analysis: A Strong Short-Squeeze After the V-Shaped Reversal

From the K-line trend of MU/USDC perpetual contracts on the Hyperliquid platform, Micron Technology's technical aspects also corroborate its strong fundamental logic.

Recently, after the MU price touched a phase low of 312.18, it quickly launched a fierce V-shaped reversal. The current price has surged to around 479.80, achieving a range increase of 53.6%.

In the moving average system, MU exhibits a perfect bullish alignment pattern (price > EMA10 > EMA40 > EMA250). Notably, the continuous upward divergence of EMA10 (482.33) and EMA40 (468.22) indicates extremely strong short- to medium-term upward momentum.

It is worth noting that in the recent process of attacking the previous high of 492.00, the MACD indicator has maintained a golden cross above the zero axis (DIF: 7.78, DEA: 8.09), accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume. This "harmonious rise in volume and price" healthy trend suggests that main capital is still continuously flowing in, making it likely for the market to break through the 492.00 resistance level and further expand upward space.

Trading Breakthrough: Why Choose Hyperliquid?

In the current volatile macro environment, traditional brokerage platforms often face limitations regarding trading hours, high transaction fees, and complicated deposit and withdrawal processes, making it difficult to meet investors' agile trading needs for tech stocks.

Hyperliquid (HYPE), as a leader in the new generation of decentralized derivative trading platforms, provides investors with a powerful trading experience:

 

• 24/7 Trading, Unfazed by Geopolitical Surprises: Operates continuously without interruption, whether it's a weekend outbreak of conflict in the Middle East or a sudden earnings report after hours, you can respond immediately and seize trading opportunities.
• On-Chain Order Book, Sub-Second Confirmation: Abandoning traditional AMM models, it adopts a fully on-chain order book mechanism, providing a smooth experience comparable to centralized exchanges with minimal slippage.
• Native USDC Settlement, Safe and Transparent Funds: Directly settle using USDC without cumbersome fiat deposit procedures, completely saying goodbye to traditional broker risks of "pulling the plug" or freezing funds.
• Diverse Macro Assets, One-Stop Hedging: Supports not only popular U.S. tech stocks like MU, NVDA, TSLA, but also covers crypto assets, gold, silver, and other commodities, facilitating the construction of cross-asset hedging portfolios on a single platform.

Actual Operation is Super Simple:

Step 1: Open Hyperliquid BTC/USDC K-line on AiCoin

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Conclusion

Geopolitical storms may bring short-term market disturbances, but they cannot stop the historical tide of the AI computing power revolution. With its irreplaceable industrial position and strong performance certainty, Micron Technology, representing "AI infrastructure," is becoming the spear to pierce through the macro fog.

Choosing the right trading tools is as important as selecting the right investment targets on the wealth train of the AI era.

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