Family, Bitcoin is now around $76,500, which is a very critical "turning point."
The current market characteristics are: long-term bullish (signal for the first phase of a bull market is on), but short-term faces strong pressure (around $77,700).
At this position, the win rate for going long (trend following) is slightly higher than for going short, but one must guard against "false breakouts" leading to sharp pullbacks. I have developed today's long and short trading strategy for you:
Core Data: Key PointsPosition
Current Price: About $76,500
Upper Pressure (Resistance Level): $77,700 (today’s high, strong pressure), $78,300 (previous high, ceiling)
Lower Support (Defensive Level): $76,000 (short-term support), $75,270 (key defense, if broken, turn to bearish)
Strategy 1: Trend Following Long (Win Rate 60%)
Logic: On-chain data from institutions indicates that short-term holders have recouped their capital, market sentiment is warming up, and the main direction is upward. What we need to do is “enter after confirming support on a pullback,” rather than chasing the price up.
Entry Point: Wait for the price to pull back to the $76,000 - $76,200 range.
Opening Signal (15-minute chart):
See a lower shadow probing the low and rebounding;
Or near $76,000, consolidate sideways without breaking down, and produce a small bullish candlestick to initiate.
Stop Loss: Break below $75,200 (once broken below today’s low, the logic for longs will be invalidated, must exit).
Target: First target is $77,500, if broken hold for $78,300.
Strategy 2: Shorting at High (Win Rate 40%, High Risk-Reward Ratio)
Logic: $77,700 - $78,300 is a zone of trapped positions and profit-taking pressures; if the attempt to break is weak, a rapid pullback will occur.
Entry Point: Wait for the price to rise to around $77,500 - $77,800.
Opening Signal (15-minute chart):
Long upper shadow (quick drop after hitting $77,800);
Or MACD divergence (the price hits a new high but the red bars do not follow).
Stop Loss: Stabilizes above $78,400 (breakout of the previous high, short must exit immediately).
Target: Looking for a pullback near $76,000.
Expert Tips (Must Read)
What to do now ($76,500)?
If you are aggressive: try going long with a small position at the current price, set a tight stop loss ($75,800), betting it will test $77,700.
If you are conservative: wait to enter long at $76,000. The current price is in the middle, directly chasing long can easily lead to being stopped out by the volatility.
Caution Signals:
If the price drops sharply below $75,270, it indicates a defeat of the bulls, the trend turns bearish; at this time, reverse and go short looking for $74,500.
Summary: Today's main tone is "buy on dips," unless you see a clear signal of sharp rise and fall, do not easily go short. Wish you profit!
This article is exclusively planned by the analysis team of (Warm Heart Talks about Coins), there may be a delay in sending the article, and the content is for reference only. Investing involves risks, proceed with caution. If you encounter problems such as locked positions, unsatisfactory operations, or want to learn more real-time analysis, please follow my public account to communicate with me. I have many years of research experience in the cryptocurrency circle, and everyone is welcome to learn.
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