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The market has been ridiculous these days; on the surface, it's just the two of them exchanging harsh words, but in reality, it's a large melodramatic soap opera.

What they play is emotional harvesting, treating the global market like an ATM. They've fought, they've cursed, and in the end, they found out that words are the most profitable weapons.

Everyone take a look at this situation; one moment it's panic, the next it's euphoria, prices bouncing up and down like it has springs. Ordinary people are still guessing the direction, while the big players have already set their traps. What about "internal whales," what about "mysterious accounts," the odds are ridiculously high.

To put it bluntly, some people knew the script in advance. Last night, Ethereum at 2289, the so-called internal whale boldly put in 92 million dollars, still daring to use 20x leverage—when you tell me that's luck, isn't that nonsense?

Back to the market, on Monday, because old Y relaxed. Emotion calmed down, U.S. stocks rebounded, and Bitcoin also caught a breath. But the problem is, how much of this rebound is based on fundamentals? How much is based on sentiment?

Don't you have an idea in your heart? Right now, the whole market feels like it's being led by the nose; one word from the Americans or one attitude from old Y, and the prices just dart around like mad dogs.

If you say it's hard to drop now, some people think so; but if you say it's hard to rise, I believe that more. In the short term, there is indeed a demand for correction, and it's not small. Don't take this current small rebound as a bull reversal; have you forgotten the kind of oscillation in 2022?

Time, structure, sentiment—all are insufficient. In the medium to long term, do you say there will definitely be a crash? Not necessarily, but to say there's no risk at all, that’s just water in the brain. The market mainstream is still eyeing the 50K range; this position didn't come from a whim.

From a technical perspective, it's currently a key node. If the 76K position cannot be held, it's better to stop pretending. But if it stabilizes, there might be another wave to try for 80K. If it cannot hold, then it's back to looking for support downwards.

The real key is not in those ideal price points you've drawn; it's in the result of the U.S.-Iran dialogue on the 22nd. The old country and old Y are now the emotional switches; if there's positive news, it will push up again, if negative, it'll drop straight down.

Where the price goes is not determined by technical analysis, but by news—that's the most frustrating part. Back to the structure, if you really look calmly, this rebound feels more like gasping for breath rather than a reversal.

From the perspective of cycles and trading, a large correction is not a possibility but a certainty. Many people are still fantasizing about a gradual bull reversal; in fact, a much bigger pit is waiting ahead.

My personal opinion is more direct; the likelihood is that the future will not be oscillation, but a descent into a proper downtrend. Once the fifth wave on the weekly level starts to dive, the rhythm will be very fast, not giving you much time to hesitate.

The Master Looks at Trends:

Currently, Bitcoin is around 75.5K. To say the conclusion first: it has fallen previously, and now it's rebounding. But this rebound has not yet confirmed whether it will truly rise; frankly speaking, it's a test of whether this rebound can hold.

After falling from 77K to 73K, the price has begun to rebound. The current situation is that it has returned to the short-term moving average, meaning there is a bit of strengthening. But it's still testing whether it can continue to move up; simply put, it's like wanting to rise but hasn't stabilized yet.

The pressure above at 76K is critical, and 77K is also the previous high. How to understand this? If the price rushes to 76K, it will either be pushed down directly or, after breaking through, will have the chance to continue to 77K.

The support below at 75K is crucial; if 74.2K is broken, it will turn weaker. So in the short term, 75K cannot be broken; if it breaks, it essentially turns weak.

4.21 The Master's Band Trading Suggestion:

Long Entry Position Reference: Not for reference

Short Entry Position Reference: Short in the 77000-77500 range, Target: 76000

If you truly want to learn from a blogger, you must follow consistently, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with showy players; today they take a screenshot of a long position, and tomorrow they summarize a short position, appearing to "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it's all after the fact. The bloggers worth following have trading logic that is consistent, self-consistent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than just jumping in once the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and piecemeal screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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