Like the judgment of the weekend, after Iran continued to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the opening price of WTI at CME on Monday has been rising. By today’s closing, it has increased to nearly 87 dollars. However, it was reported today that although Iran is very unhappy, it is still prepared to participate in the second round of negotiations with the United States on Tuesday, mainly because Trump has blocked Iranian ports.
Regarding Trump's statement on Thursday when asked about the ceasefire period, he said there was only a very small possibility of again extending the temporary ceasefire. It is unclear if this is to exert pressure on Iran and increase urgency. From my personal perspective, the probability of Trump's TACO still remains high. As long as the negotiations do not progress, the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz will be very difficult.
Now there are no better options than to wait and wait. From my personal judgment, starting to short WTI at a high price is still the first choice. Currently, I hold a short position opened at 90 dollars, and although profits have slightly retraced, the funding rate over the weekend has also been decent. Prepare some more positions and keep waiting.
Returning to the Bitcoin data, Monday's data is quite good. Although there were some fluctuations over the weekend, they were all at normal levels, and the overall resistance is not very high. The trading volume is also decent, and investor sentiment is very stable. Thanks to Iran's agreement to negotiate on Monday, both the US stock market and $BTC have rebounded, and currently, market sentiment is still stirred by the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran.
The situation with Trump’s TACO is okay, but if he really continues to take action, the market may return to pessimism, although I think the likelihood of this is not high.
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