Weekly Editor's Picks (0411-0417)

The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles can easily be drowned out by hot topics. The "Weekly Editorial Selection" column extracts these judgment-worthy contents from the massive information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and bring inspiration.

Macroeconomic Situation

The Most Dangerous Move: Why is it Harder to End the War after Blocking Hormuz?

On April 12th, after the 21-hour negotiation between the US and Iran broke down, Trump announced that the US Navy would block all ships entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz. The most critical energy choke point in the world has undergone a power transfer.

Tactically, this is a "smart" operation: without the need to occupy or destroy, the US directly took away Iran's most effective tool in the past six weeks—the control over Hormuz. However, the conflict is more likely to escalate instead.

When the "gatekeeper" begins to weaponize the waterways, the market and national risk pricing logic also changes. Therefore, the blockade may alter short-term gains but is hard to address the fundamental constraints of the conflict. A more probable outcome is a prolonged drain and continually accumulating tail risks.

“The Market has Declared Victory,” S&P Rises 10%, Nasdaq Has Ten Consecutive Gains: US Stocks “No Longer Care” about Hormuz

There is a clear divergence between the stock market and the oil market: the stock market "looks ahead," while the oil market is still waiting.

The Wealthiest Federal Reserve Chairman in History is Blocked by an Absurd Political Farce

Kevin Warsh, with a net worth of over 200 million dollars and an investor in Polymarket, is 30 days and one critical vote away from taking charge of the Federal Reserve. North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis's opposing vote is based on the investigation into the "Federal Reserve's $2.5 billion renovation project" not being concluded. Meanwhile, on the other side of the investigation, prosecutor Pirro is unyielding.

Powell's term as chairman ends on May 15. This is a hard deadline. However, his term as a Federal Reserve Board member doesn't end until January 2028. This means that even if the chairman's term ends, he is still legally a member of the Federal Reserve Board. Powell has clearly stated: If Warsh fails to get confirmed before May 15, he will continue to steer the Fed as "acting chairman."

This creates an unprecedented situation: Trump has nominated a new chairman, but the old chairman refuses to leave, and both sides claim their rights to sit in that chair. The market is now faced with a classic binary game.

Path A: Pirro withdraws the investigation, Tillis switches to a supportive vote, and Warsh takes office in mid-May. Path B: Pirro insists on the appeal, Tillis does not back down, and Powell continues as acting chairman—which means ongoing uncertainty.

In 30 days, who sits in the Federal Reserve chairman's chair will redefine the rules of the game for global capital markets in the second half of 2026. For those in the crypto market, every variable directly points to asset prices.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

Is there a secret to finding "meme coins" that multiply several times in just a few days?

The definition of a "meme coin" in the crypto realm is: the spot control rate is generally above 96%; it has Binance contracts, and whether there is spot trading is not that important; typically, it uses over-the-counter leverage, violently pulling and crashing with significant liquidity and counterparties within a short period; the dealer profits by triggering long and short liquidations and earning from the counterparties, ultimately completing the spot exit and finishing the entire harvesting process.

Although we can discover traces of dealer manipulation from many dimensions and even gain victories in "meme coin" speculation through data analysis, each "meme coin" situation is difficult to generalize through analysis and replicate in each game.

The dealer behind the "meme coin" is the one holding the script; they can confuse retail players by manipulating the data and can harvest retail players to achieve profits in various ways.

How Can Ordinary People Identify if a Token Has a Dealer in Just 10 Minutes?

Aggregate wallet calculations for concentration, pay attention to the authenticity of trading volume—Vol / Holder (OI) numbers, monitor DEX liquidity pools, focus on turnover rationality—24h Vol / market cap, number of trades vs trading volume—big order proportion, address/account/OI growth rate vs price change rate—judge at which stage the dealer is.

Without a dealer, there is no market; dealers are the underlying structure of this game.

The only opportunity for retail investors is to short, but shorting does not guarantee profits and still requires extremely high skills and effort.

Web3 & AI

Why Do Residents of Small American Towns Oppose AI Data Centers Even When Gunfire Leads to Imprisonment?

Data centers are becoming targets of attack for anti-technology and anti-government extremists. The bottleneck of AI capacity expansion has jumped out beyond the electricity contract negotiation table and appeared on the 13,200 recall votes.

Compilation of Chaos in Token Transit Stations: After Research, I Don't Dare to Use the Slightest

Using informal AI model API transit stations carries serious security risks, as it is not only a service quality fraud but may also become a channel for man-in-the-middle attacks, leading to theft of user codes, privacy data, and even system control.

If it must be used, one can choose official native direct connections or only use officially recognized gateways with extremely high credibility, and ensure strict physical isolation while turning off all unsupervised autonomous execution modes.

AI Agents Potent in Trading: Turning 100 U into 200,000 U in 8 Days

The author breaks down the recently popular AI Agent trading system "La Na," which is not just a simple automated order script but an operating system with its own trading logic.

Strictly selecting targets, only engaging in trend trading, with clear stop-loss and dynamic profit-taking. From the initial data feeding to build the skeleton, allowing it to understand what is happening in the market; to constantly correcting and constraining to form structurewith a stable judgment boundary; finally, distilling behaviors to fill in details, gradually enabling it to have decision-making paths and preferences close to humans.

The final product is no longer just an execution tool, but a "La Na" that can continuously make consistent choices in a complex market. It does not rely on emotions or seek prediction, but uses a well-validated method to participate in the market and amplify results.

Prediction Markets

Institutions Are Stuck in the Third Stage of Accessing Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are moving from niche to mainstream. The change brought by prediction markets to finance is that almost any event's future can have a real-time, liquid price benchmark.

Institutions using Kalshi divide into three stages: data access, system integration, and actual trading. Currently, most institutions are still in the first stage, some have entered the second stage, and only a few have reached the third stage. One significant reason hindering institutions from entering the third stage is that current prediction market trading requires full-margin guarantees; a $100 position needs to be matched with a $100 deposit.

Can Blindly Following Polymarket Pre-Match Winning Probabilities for NBA Ensure Profits?

The author backtested 1,096 games of the NBA 2025-26 regular season and found that the pre-match probabilities have been fully priced in. Blindly following the market cannot earn profits, but losses are also minimal (ROI of -1.87%).

Policies and Stablecoins

The White House Calculates: How Much More Can Banks Lend if Stablecoin Interest is Banned?

The "GENIUS Act" does not explicitly restrict third-party platforms from providing interest-like yields, while the proposed "CLARITY Act" attempts to plug this loophole in some parts.

The latest CEA research report attempts to prove that banning interest payouts on stablecoins has minimal impact on protecting bank loans—if stablecoins can pay interest, bank loans could evaporate by $2.1 billion, rather than the $1.5 trillion claimed by economist Andrew Nigrinis last summer.

The Real Goal of Hong Kong's "Sunshine Conspiracy" Was Never Stablecoins

The author makes a bold speculation.

Stablecoins provide the Hong Kong government with something it could never create itself: free demand-side momentum. Heat, media, KOLs, VCs, global narratives. The Hong Kong government actually aims to push the e-HKD through the stablecoin regulations.

Major currency regions are doing the same thing: transferring the sovereignty of domestic currency clearing from the proxy bank structure of the SWIFT era into their own CBDC or stablecoin frameworks. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's current core asset—the access to the USD clearing system—is depreciating. Hong Kong never needed Web3—what it needs is an entrance ticket to the next-generation financial center. And that ticket is being purchased by the first batch of stablecoin licensed institutions.

Hong Kong Stablecoin Licensing: A "Old Money" Entrance Ceremony, A Half-Time Break for Web3 People

HSBC and Standard Chartered proactively applied, invested tens of millions of dollars, and undertook user education and scenario development costs actively. This is not the result of administrative orders but rather a natural product of rule design.

Hong Kong's stringent regulations placed on stablecoin issuers are arguably the strictest globally, which means HSBC and Standard Chartered are digging into their pockets to build "free" infrastructure for Hong Kong's Web3 ecosystem. HSM data centers, KYC/AML systems, on-chain monitoring, user education, merchant access, and running cross-border B2B scenarios—these had been the biggest pain points in ecosystem development, now being borne by two issuing banks under the name of "commercial stablecoins."

They are paving the way, not charging tolls.

Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guidelines

Is Kraken Also Issuing Tokens? Understand Ink Season 1 Points Plan in One Article

Weekly Hot Topics Supplement

Policies and Macro Markets

Iran states that negotiations have ended and no agreement was reached with the US;

South Korean Central Bank recommends introducing a circuit breaker mechanism into the crypto market due to the Bithumb misoperation incident;

The suspect in the attack on OpenAI founder's residence has been charged with attempted murder, warning in his confession that "humans will be extinct due to AI";

X launches Cashtags feature in the US and Canada, supporting viewing cryptocurrency and stock data and piloting embedded trading;

Voices and Opinions

Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh discloses his holdings in cryptocurrency;

Institutions, Large Companies, and Major Projects

Goldman Sachs filed an application for the Goldman Sachs Bitcoin Premium Income ETF with the SEC (Interpretation);

Kraken has secretly submitted an IPO application in the US, with a latest valuation of about $13.3 billion;

Allbirds will sell its footwear business, transitioning to an AI computing infrastructure company, leading to a surge in stock prices (Interpretation);

WLFI unlock proposal sparked controversy, Sun Yuchen: condemns the ongoing token scandal created by internal bad actors of WLFI, criticizes WLFI unlock proposal (Interpretation);

Data

Some altcoins are surging;

VC insiders: there may be less than 20 VCs that can still invest in seed rounds in the industry;

Leading crypto VCs are collectively shrinking: a16z's crypto fund management scale plummeted by 40%, Multicoin halved.

Security

Polkadot responds to Hyperbridge vulnerabilities: only the Ethereum side DOT is affected, mainnet assets are safe;

Kraken was extorted without compromising: approximately 2,000 accounts affected, funds remain secure...

Attached is the weekly editorial selection series portal. See you next time~

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