Original Title: Gulf Disruption Rewires Oil Trade, Strategy Adds $1B in Bitcoin, Shorts Get Cornered
Original Author: Talha Chaudhry, 1KONTO
Translation: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: Under a series of seemingly "positive" signals, the market is showing a somewhat uncoordinated structure: stock markets are rising, oil prices are falling, and inflation expectations are cooling, prompting investors to rebet on the narrative of "controlled conflict" and "policy shift." However, a longer perspective reveals that deeper tensions have not disappeared.
On one hand, funds are actively ignoring short-term uncertainties and focusing on potential policy easing and technology cycles, especially AI; on the other hand, structural shocks from energy supply, global supply chains, and geopolitical games are quietly altering the long-term trajectory of demand and prices.
This division is also reflected between different markets: stocks are trading on "expected solutions," while commodities and macro variables continue to reflect "unresolved issues."
When the gap between narrative and reality continues to widen, the real risk often lies not in the variables already discussed, but in those parts selectively ignored by the market.
Below is the original text:
Market Briefing
Digital Asset Market
Strategy acquired approximately 1 billion USD worth of 13,927 bitcoins from April 6 to 12, with an average purchase price of 71,902 USD per coin, bringing its total holdings to 780,897 BTC. The accumulated cost of these bitcoins was 59.02 billion USD, with an average holding cost of 75,577 USD, still 19,103 coins short of their target of 800,000 coins.
The funds for this purchase came from the company selling 10 million shares of its Stretch perpetual preferred stock (STRC) via an "at-the-market" (ATM) offering, during which STRF, STRK, STRD, or MSTR were not sold. Notably, after the rule adjustments in March, the issuance scale of STRC hit one of the historical highs.
This operation occurred as the company disclosed a recorded unrealized loss of 14.46 billion USD in digital assets for the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of 786 million USD in one week, with bitcoin prices briefly surpassing 70,000 USD before retreating to around 71,000 USD due to weekend negotiations breaking down and geopolitical tensions triggered by the announcement of a maritime blockade on April 13.
Macroeconomics
A significant increase in the flow of oil tankers heading toward the U.S. Gulf Coast indicates that global oil trade is rapidly restructuring to respond to disruptions caused by the Middle East situation. Shipping and data analysis companies state that the number of ships currently arriving in the U.S. loaded with crude oil and transferring to supply-tight Europe and Asia markets is far above normal levels.
With transport through the Strait of Hormuz being restricted and hundreds of energy-related ships lined up waiting for loading, buyers are shifting supply chains to the U.S., even if it means rerouting around Africa and facing longer transport paths. This change further strengthens the U.S. role as a "marginal supplier" and "emergency stabilizer" in the global energy framework.
Some commentators view this trend as a shift in geopolitical dynamics—weakening Iran's leverage; at the same time, it is also a logistics and capacity story, including the expansion of Gulf Coast port channels. However, there are also macro-level trade-offs: on one hand, increased U.S. exports help alleviate the skyrocketing global oil prices and improve external balances; on the other hand, domestic consumers will still bear the pressure of rising gasoline prices, presenting potential political and economic growth risks, even as the U.S. has become a net oil exporter, proving more resilient to past oil price shocks.
Stock Market
The U.S. stock market rose for a second consecutive trading day, with investors choosing to "ignore risks" against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical uncertainty and turned to optimistic expectations that U.S.-Iran negotiations could lead to an agreement. The S&P 500 index rose by 1.18%, just about 1% away from its 52-week high; the Dow rose by 0.66%; and the Nasdaq rose by 1.96%, led by technology stocks, with Oracle, NVIDIA, and Palantir Technologies performing prominently.
Market sentiment was also buoyed by the producer price index (PPI) for March coming in lower than expected. Meanwhile, oil prices fell sharply, with WTI down about 7% and Brent crude down about 4%.
Earnings reports showed mixed results: Wells Fargo's stock declined due to disappointing performance, while JPMorgan Chase, despite exceeding profit expectations, fell slightly after lowering its net interest income guidance.
Additionally, market rumors circulated about a merger between United Airlines and American Airlines, but it is expected to face severe antitrust scrutiny, though both companies' stock prices still rose.
NVIDIA continued its strong upward trend, driven mainly by persistent demand for AI chips, launching the open-source "Ising" quantum model, and major tech companies increasing capital expenditures; the company also denied rumors of acquisition talks with PC manufacturers.
Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that core inflation will continue to decline this year, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, he also understands that it is reasonable for decision-makers to wait for clearer signals regarding the economic impact of the Iran war before taking action.
Data showed that overall inflation rose by 0.9% month-over-month in March, with producer prices rising by 0.5%, mainly driven by energy; core inflation, however, was significantly milder, only at 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. He pointed out that after the ceasefire, the retreat of U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices indicates that inflation expectations are cooling.
The current overall inclination of the Federal Reserve is to maintain interest rates unchanged, while political uncertainty is also rising: Jerome Powell's term will end in May, and Kevin Warsh's confirmation appointment may be delayed due to an investigation involving Senator Thom Tillis related to cost overruns at the Federal Reserve building.
Geopolitics
The U.S. and Iran are attempting to arrange a second round of peace negotiations within days, potentially returning to Pakistan, with the goal of making progress before the current ceasefire agreement expires next week. Iran is also considering temporarily halting transportation through the Strait of Hormuz to alleviate tensions.
Although the Islamabad talks did not yield substantial results, diplomacy is still advancing; however, the U.S. has begun implementing a maritime blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, limiting Iranian oil exports and warning that it will intercept or reroute ships related to Iranian ports while allowing neutral vessels to pass through. The optimistic market outlook for an agreement led to a drop in oil prices and a rise in the stock market.
The conflict has already damaged regional energy infrastructure, disrupted global supply chains, and raised fuel costs. The International Energy Agency warned that global oil demand may experience the first annual decline since 2020. Meanwhile, Switzerland has offered diplomatic support, Israel continues its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and significant differences remain between the U.S. and Iran on nuclear issues—while the U.S. proposed a long-term suspension plan, Iran prefers a shorter deadline.
Our ViewpointNegative Funding Rates, Not $76,000, Might Be the True Bottom Signal for Bitcoin
The obstruction of Bitcoin around $76,000 may not be as significant as the market imagines; what deserves more attention is the off-chain structure: the derivatives market has seen negative funding rates for 46 consecutive days, indicating that traders are long-term "paying to short." In a market typically biased toward bullish structures, this situation is extremely rare.
The last time sentiment was this one-sided was after the collapse of FTX, when extreme pessimism coincided highly with cyclical bottoms. Of course, this does not mean history will simply repeat itself; macro environments, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity variables are still influencing the market. However, it is certain that current short positions have become significantly crowded.
The real risk may not lie in further declines, but rather in the possibility that, once even a mild positive emerges, shorts could be forced to cover in a thin liquidity environment, potentially triggering a sharp repricing upward.
Gulf Shocks May Fade, but Some Oil Demand Could Vanish Permanently
The market often views demand destruction as a short-term phenomenon, but historical experience shows that severe supply shocks often leave long-lasting impacts.
When prices soar and supply shortages occur, airlines will retire inefficient aircraft, industrial users will adjust production processes, residents and businesses will change consumption habits, and governments will accelerate energy diversification. These "passive savings" often evolve into "structural demand reduction."
This brings about a key second-order risk: when supply in the Gulf region recovers, the pace of supply restoration may outstrip demand recovery. At that time, relief in the spot market may translate into repricing in financial markets—narrowing spreads, rising inventories, declining refining profits, and producers will also realize that a portion of the demand formed during the crisis has permanently vanished.
Key Supply Chains Reshoring, Testing Not Just Rhetoric but Execution Capability
Supply chain reshoring around electrification, defense, and advanced manufacturing is accelerating, but the "urgency" itself does not solve problems.
Core processes such as rare earth processing, critical metals, and magnets remain highly concentrated in China, exposing the vulnerability of Western supply chains amid unacceptable strategic dependencies. Companies like USA Rare Earth establishing processing capabilities in France and pushing for capacity building in Oklahoma indicate that the direction is indeed clear; government involvement also means that "reshoring" is shifting from cost issues to safety and resilience considerations.
However, the true challenge lies at the execution level: approval efficiency, long-term financing, skilled labor, and stable downstream demand are all indispensable. If these fundamental conditions cannot progress synchronously, supply chain reshoring is likely to remain at a high-cost strategic vision rather than turning into genuinely feasible industrial capabilities.
Wishing you successful trading
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