Author: Haotian

These days, I’ve been idle and have roughly researched the impact of quantum computers on the blockchain ecosystem, involving a large amount of cryptographic background knowledge. Without going into too much detail, I’ll share a few points:

1) In the past, the common understanding in academia was that breaking a 256-bit elliptic curve encryption algorithm would require about several million physical qubits, around 6000 logical qubits. However, the new paper published by Google did not introduce any groundbreaking new hardware; it simply recompiled Shor's algorithm for its execution on a quantum circuit, reducing the required logical qubits to 1200.

What does this mean? It implies that the cost of computational power has been directly reduced by nearly 20 times. This is the fundamental reason why quantum threat theory has been hotly debated. What was once considered absolutely impossible is now beginning to have a "countdown";

2) Google has set this countdown for 2029, meaning that before this time point, encryption methods including HTTPS for the internet, SSL bank certificates, SSH remote login, as well as the underlying ECDSA signature systems of public chains like BTC and Ethereum must undergo a "quantum-resistant" overhaul, or there could be catastrophic consequences.;

Regarding this point, I find it exaggerated to say that 2029 is just three years away. After all, there is still a significant gap between pure theory and practical execution. But at least it shows that the time window for upgrading quantum-resistant encryption algorithms has begun to open. It is not imminent, but we cannot afford to be complacent;

3) If up to this point, many people still have no conception of the quantum threat, we can elaborate on a few attack surfaces:

1. Currently, about 25%-35% of addresses on the BTC chain have public keys exposed, including early addresses in the P2PK format used in the Satoshi era and all addresses that have been reused or have had transactions. These addresses fall within the scope of attack; while addresses that have not had transactions, as long as they initiate a transfer after quantum computers become mature, during the 10 minutes that their transaction is processed in the Mempool, they are vulnerable to quantum decryption and can be attacked, leading to a total paralysis of the entire network;

2. The crisis facing Ethereum is even more direct; when an ETH EOA account sends a transaction for the first time, the public key will be exposed on-chain through the signature. With the data availability sampling mechanism introduced by EIP-4844, and relying on POS signature verification in its consensus network, the issue faced by the Ethereum public chain is not whether the private key can be cracked, but that once the signature algorithm is not upgraded, the entire network will be rendered obsolete;

3. Crucially, since the transaction history on blockchains is traceable and permanently stored on-chain, even though the conditions for quantum computer attacks are not yet mature, past and present transactions that have exposed public keys will be recorded and become potential targets for attacks, waiting for quantum machines to be fully operational.

4) Of course, since the quantum attack still exists within a technological breakthrough + time window, theoretically, as long as a major overhaul to "quantum-resistant" measures is completed in the next few years, self-rescue could be achieved.

Ethereum has long been optimizing its "engineering" layout against quantum threats, including advancing account abstraction to allow EOA addresses to switch signature schemes directly at the application layer, and validator signatures moving towards quantum-resistant PQC encryption algorithms (Post-Quantum Cryptography, a new generation of encryption standards specifically designed to resist quantum attacks), all of which can strengthen quantum-resistant features from the underlying architecture. What makes Ethereum exceptionally powerful is its dynamic upgrade feature, "refueling in flight." Since the direction is clear, enhancing quantum resistance is merely a matter of time.

Bitcoin has chosen to introduce BIP-360, which will bring in post-quantum signature algorithms such as FALCON or CRYSTALS-Dilithium. Technically, this is not complex, but the difficulty lies in achieving consensus. It is known that the Bitcoin community argued for years over a block size fork, so expecting them to quickly compromise on a quantum-resistant hard fork is not optimistic. However, once the threat becomes more "certain," even the most laid-back development community will have to push through this self-rescue patch.

That’s all.

Finally, an interesting note is that Google used zero-knowledge proofs (ZK) to disclose this potential quantum threat, consciously allowing it to "soft land." After all, if it gets out of control, it could be catastrophic not just for blockchain but for internet civilization as a whole. Additionally, there are researchers from the Ethereum Foundation involved in Google's Quantum AI team, so it’s possible that quantum resistance will become a mainstream narrative for blockchain going forward, especially since its natural gene is cryptographic technology. This new mission is very Crypto!

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