The market sentiment on Tuesday is still quite good, and there have been emerging positive rumors about Iran and the United States. One suggests that the U.S. and Iran might reach an agreement on uranium enrichment, while another states that the temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could be extended by another two weeks; both possibilities are quite high. Currently, the main discussion regarding uranium is about the timing of the ban, rather than the ban itself, so the chances of reaching an agreement are significant.
Furthermore, extending the temporary ceasefire is already a consensus in the market. Although the U.S. has already blocked Iranian ports and indicated that no ships have entered Iranian ports in the last 24 hours, Iran has not shown such strong resistance, indicating that both Iran and the U.S. do not wish to continue the conflict. Additionally, there are reports that Iran is advancing the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Otherwise, there are no significant events that can impact the market. In the short term, it is highly unlikely that the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the U.S. will reignite. The focus is on when the Strait of Hormuz can be completely cleared. Looking at the longer term, the key remains monetary policy.
Looking back at the data for Bitcoin, trading volume has significantly retracted, and turnover rate is also decreasing. Investors' sensitivity to price is lowering, and most investors are not too interested in the current price. However, it is evident that investors who were bottom-fishing in the past two weeks are exiting. Overall, current investors have a bit more buying interest, while selling volume will slightly decrease, as everyone waits for signals of the end of the geopolitical conflict.
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