At 10 a.m. Eastern Time on April 13, the Strait of Hormuz was fully militarized. According to common sense reasoning, this should be a signal for the cryptocurrency market to plunge again -- an escalation of geopolitical crisis, risks of energy supply disruption, and rising global risk aversion sentiment. But the actual market trend is completely reversed.

After the militarization took effect, Bitcoin not only did not drop but rose instead, reaching the highest point of 76063 dollars in the past week yesterday, stabilizing at 74167 dollars this morning. Ethereum also started to correct from a high of 2417 dollars, and as of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 74258 dollars while Ethereum is 2328 dollars. Accompanying this rebound, a total of 434 million dollars was liquidated involving 180,000 traders; the market did not collapse due to the martial law but instead used the blood of shorts to complete a short squeeze.

The martial law was not an unexpected black swan; Trump announced the plan on the same day, April 12, Sunday, and the market had digested it two days in advance: panic selling on Sunday, continuous consolidation on Monday, and by Tuesday, when the martial law officially took effect, the selling pressure had already dissipated. This is a textbook example of "sell the rumor, buy the news," where the fear was priced in before the event occurred, making the actual timing a buying opportunity.

Four-hour chart of Bitcoin

From a Fibonacci perspective, the current price is stuck at the key level of 0.382, around 74100. This round has pulled from 70455 to 75985, and now it has retreated to around 0.382, which is about 73873, oscillating continuously. It cannot go above 0.236 at 74680, nor break below 0.5 at 73220. This is a typical strong sideways consolidation, with clear buying and exchanging of hands by the main players here. As long as it does not break below the 0.5 position, the overall trend remains a bullish structure.

Looking at the BOLL indicator, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands has flattened out, and the price is repeatedly moving around the middle line. The Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow, indicating that the market is entering a phase of choosing direction. The price is sticking to the middle line, suggesting a temporary balance of forces between bulls and bears. Meanwhile, the lower band is continuously rising, which means that the support below is gradually strengthening. Therefore, this is not a signal for a bearish trend, but rather a buildup waiting for direction.

As for MACD, although a high-level death cross has appeared, the strength of the bears has not increased. The green MACD histogram has not only not expanded but has actually contracted. What does this indicate? It suggests that the current decline is merely a correction, not a main bearish phase. As long as there is no "second volume downward attack," this MACD pattern looks more like a shakeout.

The KDJ indicator shows that the K value and D value are turning upward again around 50, with the rise of the J value being particularly pronounced. This is a standard short-term rebound initiation signal.

A concise summary from the master: It is not about falling now, but a sideways shakeout after a rise.

The master's view on the future trend is very clear. As long as it does not break below the 73200 level (the 0.5 level), continue to look for a upward oscillation. Once it can stabilize above 74600 at the 0.236 level, it is very likely to challenge the previous high of 75900. If it breaks through 75900, the next step is to see if it can create a new high.

Key positions are marked clearly: strong support at 73200, short-term support at 73800, resistance level at 74600, strong resistance at 75900.

The operating thought maintains the master's style: as long as it does not break the 0.5 level on the pullback, the idea of buying low remains unchanged. If it breaks through 74600, you can follow the trend to buy. If it falls below 73200, then retreat in the short term and observe first.

Brothers, remember this: oscillation is not a risk, it's the major players screening the holders. At this position, it is not about judgment but rather patience. Those who cannot hold on can easily get shaken out.

Giving you a hundred percent accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the correct ideas and trends; teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish, a suggestion earns temporarily, but ideas can learn to earn for a lifetime!

Writing time: (2026-04-15, 21:30)

(Written by - Master Says Coin) Special Statement: There may be delays in online publication; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks; be cautious when entering the market!

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