Author: U.S. Stock Investment Network

This line over the weekend, if you are an investor, you are likely to have watched the screen until the end.

From 21 hours of negotiations to "flipping the table" within 4 hours, and then to U.S. President Donald Trump announcing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—this is not a normal geopolitical disturbance, but an event that forcibly rewrites pricing logic.

All the assumptions of the market over the past week have basically become invalid this weekend.

The U.S. Stock Investment Network wants to make the core conclusion clear:

This is not a question of "will oil prices rise," but a question of "has the global asset pricing anchor begun to shift."

1. From "Negotiation Failure" to "Blockade of the Strait": The Starting Point of Market Misjudgment

Many people may simply understand this event as:

Negotiations failed → Risk escalated → Oil prices rose

But if you stop here, you will have fundamentally missed the key point.

The essence of this situation is— the choice of path has changed.

At the negotiation table, the U.S. side demanded "zero nuclear capability"; Iran insisted on "retaining enrichment rights + lifting sanctions first."

This is not a divergence; it is an irreconcilable structural conflict.

What truly led to the collapse of negotiations is something deeper: order and rhythm.

U.S.: First provide results (nuclear commitments), then discuss other matters

Iran: First provide buffers (sanctions/ceasefire), then discuss core issues

21 hours without any progress is fundamentally about not being able to agree on terms, but about not being able to agree on worldviews.

Then things began to spiral out of control—

Within 4 hours after the talks collapsed, military economic measures were directly implemented: blockade of the Hormuz Strait.

The significance of this step is immense:

From "game" directly switched to "enforcement."

2. The Strait of Hormuz: Not a Geopolitical Issue, but the Global Asset Pricing Hub

It must be clarified here a point that many underestimate:

The Strait of Hormuz is not an ordinary shipping route, but the "valve" for global energy pricing.

About 20% of global oil transportation passes through here

It is the core export channel of marginal supply

It is the trigger for oil price "tail risk"

In the past, the market assumed a hidden premise:

Even during tensions, the strait would not be completely severed

But now, this premise has been broken.

From "limited navigation under Iranian control" to "proactive blockade led by the U.S. military," it means:

The supply logic has changed from "limited" to "artificial risk of zero."

These two are not on the same level at all.

3. The Three Major Pricing Assumptions for Oil Prices Have All Collapsed

Last week, oil prices fluctuated between $94 and $97, actually based on three assumptions:

Ceasefire would continue

The strait would gradually resume navigation

Negotiations were still progressing

Now looking back—

Ceasefire: Less than 10 days left, with no renewal arrangements

Navigation: Changed from "resumption" to "blockade"

Negotiations: Defined as "final offer failure"

All three core variables have reversed.

This is also why:

Near-month oil prices have soared (spot purchases are unavailable)

Far-month prices remain between $50 and $70 (the market bets on future recovery)

A typical extreme backwardation structure.

Behind this, the market is essentially saying:

"Short-term is war, long-term is rationality."

But the problem is—

If the short term is long enough, it will change the long term.

4. Brent at $100, Not Target Price, But a "Switch"

The biggest misconception in the market now is treating $100 as a "price target."

But from a macro perspective, it is actually a trigger.

Once Brent Crude Oil stabilizes above $100, three things will be triggered:

1) Inflation Rises Again

Current CPI: 3.3%

If oil prices maintain at $100: Model projections around 4.3%

If it hits $120: Possibly over 5%

2) Federal Reserve Path Re-priced

Key figure: Jerome Powell

His previous premise was:

Could "selectively ignore oil price shocks," provided inflation expectations are stable

But if inflation rises again—this premise directly becomes invalid.

The result is:

Delayed interest rate cuts

Short-term interest rates rising

Liquidity tightening expectations returning

3) U.S. Stock Valuation System Under Pressure

The path is very clear:

Oil prices ↑ → Inflation ↑ → Interest rate expectations ↑ → Valuation ↓

Once this chain reaction starts, it is hard to brake mid-course.

5. Trump's "Blockade Strategy": Strong in the Short Term, Difficult to Withdraw in the Long Term

From a strategic perspective, Donald Trump's move is actually a typical "dual-track operation":

On one side, saying "most of the negotiations have reached consensus" (leaving a way out)

On the other side, directly implementing the blockade (extreme pressure)

This is a very typical negotiation strategy:

Using actions to raise the opponent's decision-making costs

But the problem is—

Once executed, such a blockade is hard to retract easily.

The U.S. Stock Investment Network believes that because it brings three side effects:

Rising oil prices → Increasing domestic inflation pressure in the U.S.

Market volatility → Tightening financial conditions

Political pressure → Rising risks for midterm elections

In other words:

This is not a "button that can be withdrawn at any time," but a "situation that must yield results to end."

6. Iran's Strategy: No Confrontation, Buy Time

In contrast, Iran's response is more "market-oriented."

The three core points:

Not eager to escalate the conflict

Maintaining the possibility of negotiations

Using time to wear down the opponent

Even the expression method is quite delicate—

Responding with "mocking replies" through overseas embassies, rather than a direct hard stance from the Foreign Ministry.

This means:

Both sending strong signals and retaining room for maneuver.

In simple terms:

The U.S. is accelerating, while Iran is decelerating.

And in this type of game—

The slower party often has more advantage.

7. Three Key Variables to Watch on Monday and Beyond

In the short term, how the market moves does not require guessing the direction, the key is to look for "confirmation signals."

1) Whether Oil Prices Stabilize at $100

Stabilized: The market recognizes "the blockade is a long-term variable"

Surge and pullback: Believes it is just an emotional impact

2) U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield

This is the most direct reflection of "interest rate cut expectations."

3) Intensity of Blockade Enforcement

The key is not "what was said," but:

Whether ships are really stopped

Whether mines are truly cleared

Whether there is coordination among multiple countries

The details of enforcement in the first week will determine whether the market "believes this is real."

Final Judgment

This round is not a simple geopolitical conflict nor a short-term opportunity in oil prices.

It is more akin to:

A shift in the global asset pricing anchor from "inflation retreat" to "supply shock."

If you are still using last year’s logic to view the market—

Then you will likely be half a beat slow.

And in such an environment, being half a beat slow often means the difference of all profits.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。