Original Title: "Turning Attention into Order Book: Noise Lets You 'Hype' on Chain"
Original Author: Eric, Foresight News
On April 1, 2026, Beijing time, "The Hype Prediction Market" Noise launched its Beta version and officially opened for trading. Users need to pay $5 to trade on the Beta version DApp to prevent some malicious behaviors.
Noise announced in January this year that it had completed a $7.1 million seed round led by Paradigm, with participation from Figment Capital, Anagram, GSR, and JPEG Trading, as well as investment from KaitoAI, which had previously been cut off from API access by X.
The term "hype" has always meant deliberately creating topics and attracting attention to increase exposure and discussion of an issue. However, Noise quantifies hype into a number, allowing users to trade the rise and fall of this number. In Noise's own words, prediction markets are about "whether a certain thing will happen," whereas Noise focuses on "how important something is right now."
Hype Index Trading Platform
The mechanism of Noise is actually easy to explain: using Noise's algorithm to generate a hype index for a certain event or cultural symbol, users can predict whether the hype will rise or fall in the future and engage in long or short positions.
There are only two things to clarify: first, how to trade; second, how the index is calculated.
Perhaps due to being in the testing phase, trading on the Noise platform does not directly use fiat currencies or cryptocurrencies, but requires users to purchase "credits" on the platform with them and then use those credits for trading.
Fiat currency purchases support bank channels as well as Cash App and Amazon Pay, while cryptocurrency transactions require transfers via MetaMask and Phantom, currently supporting USDC payments on Ethereum and Solana. The author did not find a way to exchange credits back to fiat or stablecoins, possibly because the Beta version is only testing the trading engine and does not yet have a settlement function.
Taking "crude oil," a market that has attracted significant attention recently, as an example, users can choose a leverage of 1 to 5 times for long or short trading. Currently, this market is one of the hottest in the Noise Beta version, but the 24-hour trading volume is just over 200,000, with an open interest of about 2 million, equating to less than $2,000.
Although not displayed on the front end, Noise also employs an order book model. Unlike prediction markets, Noise's trading market resembles perpetual contracts in cryptocurrencies, with the index provided by the oracle serving as the "mark price," and the market uses the funding rate to automatically adjust the balance between the market price and the mark price.
As for the hype index we are trading, Noise refers to it as the "Relevance Index," with data calculations based on two sources: content and signals.
In terms of content, Noise tracks interactions, post counts, and the number of independent authors related to topics on X, Reddit, YouTube, Instagram, Substack, and RSS news feeds. Signals come from trading volumes and market counts on related topics on Polymarket and Kalshi.
The smoothed values of all sources and indicators (to prevent short-term noise from affecting results) are aggregated into a composite value, which is the index that users trade, but Noise has not fully disclosed the specific algorithm, likely to prevent people from using the algorithm's mechanism to artificially inflate the hype of a specific issue or to weaken the hype of a hot event through a large amount of irrelevant information.
Interestingly, the author found a test net experience video of Noise from a year ago on YouTube. In April 2025, Noise's index was still a "Mindshare" data point ranging from 0 to 100, and as late as February this year, a Forbes report on prediction markets still used this term.
Founders Who Just Graduated from University
The core founding team of Noise consists of three members, all from the University of Southern California: 22-year-old Luca Cordova Stuart, 26-year-old David Zhou, and 24-year-old Gabriel Perez Carafa.
Gabriel Perez Carafa had no work experience before Noise, Luca Cordova Stuart had an internship in BD at LayerZero Labs, and David Zhou has almost no public information available.
The three co-founders of Noise do not have particularly outstanding backgrounds, which is quite similar to Kalshi at its early stage. However, unlike Forbes categorizing Noise as a prediction market, these three young individuals do not agree with that characterization. In the blog post at the launch of the Beta version, they wrote, "You may have seen people compare Noise to prediction markets; we understand why this comparison is made, but we do not agree with it. Speculation is just one of many factors; our goal is to build a platform to help people understand and disseminate deeper stories about modern culture, lifestyle, political and technological changes."
From previous articles, it has always been clear that Noise wants to express: eliminating noise and gaining true insights. Prediction markets provide probabilities of an event occurring backed by real money, while Noise wants to discuss "whether it is necessary to talk about whether this event will happen."
What Other Application Scenarios Exist Besides Speculation?
There is undoubtedly speculation in trading markets, which is not debatable; the key question is what practical use cases exist for Noise beyond speculation.
Previously, co-founder Lara from Kalshi shared at a conference that recently large orders worth millions of dollars emerged in Kalshi's inflation prediction markets, with these orders stemming from large enterprises hedging against potential wage increases due to inflation rebounds. Noise also provided a similar scenario: companies can use part of their marketing budget to short the topics they plan to market, thus hedging against the failure of their marketing strategies.
Additionally, "hype" has unique uses in trading cryptocurrencies, stocks, etc. According to the market on Noise regarding the hype of the topic PUMP, the peak hype coincided with the rebound highs after the initial drop of PUMP. For investors who believe in the adage "buy when no one asks, sell when the crowd roars," Noise’s related markets may serve as a good reference and hedging channel.
Noise plans to launch its mainnet on Base in the coming months, at which point the platform will be open to everyone and support real money trading. From the author's perspective, Noise's ideas are indeed quite novel and have real application scenarios, but like prediction markets from over a decade ago, trading "hype" and "trends" may still be somewhat ahead of its time, though at least in the current market flooded with stablecoins and payment applications, Noise is a target worthy of exploring for airdrops.
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