On Saturday, April 11, a key window for the top-bottom conversion, will Bitcoin move in one direction next week or return to oscillation?

April has already passed a third of its duration, and it’s the weekend node again, so let’s talk about the trend of Bitcoin for the next week. Personally, I lean towards a bearish view, from the perspective of an ordinary person, without using complicated terminology.

From the chart, it is very clear that the current price is just stuck at a key position—near the strong support line from the past, which we commonly refer to as the "top-bottom conversion" node.

The market has been oscillating repeatedly in the range of 65,000 to 73,000, appearing to form a bottom, yet in reality, the bullish power is extremely weak. Every time there is a rebound to around 73,000, it encounters resistance and falls back; the pressure at 74,000 remains unbroken, and the so-called top-bottom conversion has not formed at all. The rise completely lacks sustained funding and emotional support, and expecting to reach 85,000 is simply unrealistic.

From a core logic perspective, on the macro level, the Federal Reserve continues a hawkish stance, and interest rate cut expectations are consistently postponed, with high-interest-rate environments suppressing risk assets; on the capital side, ETF inflows are weak, and there are no significant signs of whales or institutions entering the market, leading to constant selling pressure. Overall, the upside space is locked down, leaving the bulls powerless to counterattack, while the support at 65,000 looks solid but is in fact very fragile.

This weak oscillation essentially resembles a continuation of the downtrend, rather than a true bottom formation. Next week, it is highly probable that there will not be a strong one-sided upward trend; instead, the likelihood of a weakening oscillation is greater. Once the 73,000 position is confirmed to break down, it will open up new downward space, and the market will likely enter a one-sided decline, seeking support in the 60,000-63,000 range.

Next week, the medium-term thought process could involve building a position near the current price of 73,000, looking for a pullback, with a stop at 74,200. The support below is observed in the 68-65-63 region, with an initial position of 10-30%, increasing the position if it falls below 70,000, reducing by 50% at 68,000, and clearing entirely at 65,500.

In terms of operations, it is not advisable to blindly catch the bottom; prioritizing risk management on rebounds at high levels is essential. Stay cautious and do not be misled by short-term small rebounds.

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