This assignment has become more difficult to write, still revolving around the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States. The biggest risk now has turned into Israel's attacks on Lebanon. Even just now, Netanyahu specifically stated that Lebanon will not have a ceasefire, Israel is willing to engage in peace talks, while the Iranian foreign minister indicated that if the United States allows Israel to continue attacking Lebanon, thereby endangering the regional ceasefire, it would be a foolish act.

I estimate that Trump is also feeling overwhelmed right now. He probably genuinely wants a ceasefire, especially since there was just a hint of falling oil prices, but now WTI has risen again, peaking at 102 dollars today, as the Strait of Hormuz has been closed by Iran again. So even though there is a ceasefire, it hasn’t done much to help oil prices. Netanyahu's main reason for not wanting a ceasefire might still be to prevent Hezbollah from retaining its arms and border threats.

However, aside from oil prices being very strong, the market is quite optimistic. The rise in the US stock market and $BTC has been pretty encouraging, as the market still believes that a ceasefire can proceed smoothly. But if oil prices continue to rise, or even if they maintain their position at under 100 dollars, it won’t significantly help the US inflation; ensuring smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz is still very important.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, market sentiment is still quite positive, and the turnover rate is decreasing, but trading volume hasn’t shown much improvement, indicating that current capital and liquidity are still not ideal. The main reason for the price increase should be the reduction in sell-offs, as the market is willing to believe that the ceasefire between Iran and the US can continue.

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