The ceasefire agreement disperses the macro haze, and the cryptocurrency market may welcome a good opportunity to buy the dip.

Written by: Max.S

In the past 48 hours, the global macro market has experienced a dramatic shift in sentiment. With an unexpected ceasefire agreement reached between Washington and Tehran, the geopolitical gloom hovering over global capital markets has been quickly dispersed. In this sudden macro upheaval, the trends of traditional assets and crypto assets have shown a highly researchable divergence and reconstruction.

With the stimulus of this news, Bitcoin (BTC) quickly surged from $69,000 to above $72,000, even breaking through the $73,000 round number briefly during short-term trading.

In contrast, the traditional oil market experienced a sharp decline due to the rapid removal of geopolitical premiums. This opposite trend not only shattered the rigid definitions of "safe-haven" and "risk" assets in traditional finance, but also brought Bitcoin's "real-time price discovery" ability in the global macro game to the forefront.

For professional financial practitioners and crypto native investors, the confirmation of the end of this war is not merely a news event; it seems more like an extremely important cyclical coordinate. Behind this coordinate, we see an extremely contradictory industry situation: the marginal warming of macro sentiment coexists with the extreme depletion of liquidity within the crypto industry. This extreme sense of tearing is reminiscent of the 2019 ice age that left countless practitioners in despair while nurturing a stunning bull market.

In the narrative context of traditional finance, assets are strictly divided into Risk-on and Risk-off categories. When war breaks out, funds flow into gold, US Treasury bonds, and the US dollar as safe havens; when war ends, funds return to stocks and high-yield bonds. However, in this cycle of the game between Washington and Tehran, Bitcoin has exhibited a rare and highly resilient "dual attribute."

As noted in recent market analyses by XBTFX and Crypto.com, Bitcoin has acted as a perfect "real-time price discovery" tool during this geopolitical crisis. The crypto market's 24/7 trading mechanism makes it the first site for global capital to price macro sudden events.

In the early stages of intense conflict, Bitcoin's trend highly correlated with traditional safe-haven assets like oil and gold. Due to its decentralized characteristics that resist censorship and are easy to transfer across borders, Bitcoin is often regarded by high-net-worth individuals and institutions as a "digital safe-haven channel" during local wars and geopolitical turmoil. At this time, it benefits from the premium concerning concerns over sovereign credit. However, what is truly remarkable is its rapid "face-changing" during the crisis alleviation period. When rumors of a ceasefire emerged, and oil prices plummeted due to the elimination of supply chain concerns caused by the war, Bitcoin did not suffer a sell-off like traditional safe-haven assets; instead, it experienced explosive growth due to the overall return of global market risk appetite (Risk-on).

This ability to seamlessly switch between "safe-haven asset" and "risk asset" arises from Bitcoin's intrinsic dual valuation model. In times of crisis, it acts as a tool for hedging geopolitical risks and fiat currency depreciation; in times of peace and the return of liquidity expectations, it becomes an enhanced version of Nasdaq tech stocks with high Beta. This dual-sided characteristic means Bitcoin has, to some extent, surpassed traditional gold, becoming the most sensitive and efficient geopolitical barometer in the global capital game. It does not rely on complex delivery systems and storage costs; merely based on code and consensus, it can complete the repricing of global risk sentiment in milliseconds.

From the perspective of macro games, the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is not accidental; it is the inevitable result of both sides reaching some Nash equilibrium between internal economic pressures and external political demands. For the financial market, this means that the greatest uncertainty has been eliminated. No insider news, no suspense, both sides have no reason to continue bearing the enormous costs of war.

The confirmation of the end of war has the most direct impact on the crypto market by removing the "black swan" expectations hanging over the market. For a while, concerns that the Middle East situation could lead to a comprehensive global energy crisis and a resurgence of inflation overshadowed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, putting major asset classes in a generally defensive tightening state.

Now, the alarm has been lifted. The asset allocation logic of macro funds will return to fundamentals and liquidity expectations. Regarding the rebound of Bitcoin, there is no urgency to pre-judge the specific position of the top at this stage from a trading strategy perspective.

As a Wall Street adage goes: "Do not try to predict the extremes of the market, but follow the extension of the trend."

Where to take profits on the rebound can simply be observed dynamically by watching the thickness of the order book and the turnover of key resistance levels. The true core contradiction has shifted from macro geopolitical games to micro structural issues within the crypto industry.

If Bitcoin's price rebound brings a bit of warmth to the market, then when we turn our attention to the ecological structure within the crypto industry, what we feel is a bone-chilling cold. The current industry fundamentals in 2026 resemble that "crypto winter" of 2019.

The current micro market exhibits two extremely extreme characteristics: a cliff-like decline in secondary liquidity and a near-freeze of primary investment confidence.

Let us first look at the secondary market. Although Bitcoin has remained in high-level fluctuating and even rebounded, except for a few mainstream coins, the vast majority of altcoins have exhausted their liquidity. After experiencing the brutal volatility and regulatory pressure of the "Double Ten Incident," market makers have significantly reduced their risk exposure on the balance sheet, resulting in extremely poor market depth. Slightly large sell orders can break through the defense line, and the trading willingness of retail and institutional investors has plummeted to freezing point. The entire secondary market presents a "Bitcoin siphoning blood, everything else withering" tearing scene.

The severity of the primary market is no less than that. VC in the Web3 field is facing a dual dilemma of severe LP pressure and difficulties in fundraising. Former seed-round financing at valuations of tens of millions of dollars has long vanished. Web3 companies are facing an unprecedented wave of layoffs, and from basic blockchain development teams to high-level DeFi and GameFi protocols, all are invariably trimming down and cutting back. The faith of industry practitioners is facing severe tests, with a large number of previously ambitious technicians and market elites retreating from the crypto circle and moving to seemingly more certain AI or other traditional tech fields.

This is a typical feature of a cyclical bottom: capital retreating, bubbles bursting, low-quality projects being cleared, and practitioners being washed out. For those well-versed in financial history, all of this is very familiar. In 2019, it was with the complete explosion of the ICO bubble, Bitcoin's long painful horizontal movement at the bottom, and the massive exit of practitioners that the market completed its final turnover of chips.

In financial markets, consensus is often harvested, and the leap of wealth across classes often comes from contrarian trading in extreme market emotions. Buffett's worn-out phrase "be greedy when others are fearful" has extremely hardcore practical guidance in the current crypto market.

Why is this year the best time to bottom fish in the secondary market and invest in the primary market?

From the perspective of cyclical odds and success rates, when a large number of industry practitioners have left, primary market valuations are severely compressed, and the secondary market is unattended, the "bubble premium" of assets has been completely squeezed out. In 2019, those who steadfastly invested in Bitcoin and Ethereum in the secondary market under the cold gaze of the market, while also capturing early DeFi protocols (such as Uniswap, Aave, etc.) at extremely low valuations in the primary market, ultimately became the biggest winners in the bull markets of 2020 to 2021, earning thousands of times Alpha returns.

The current market environment provides a perfect window for reinvestment:

Alpha screening in the secondary market: The depletion of liquidity is actually the best touchstone. Those projects that can still maintain core code updates, active community engagement, and real income models without strong market maker support are the core assets that will explode in the next cycle. At this time, collecting chips at extremely low time and capital costs means that its downside risk has been fully released by the previous long downward trend.
Buyer’s market in the primary market: Due to fundraising difficulties, quality Web3 entrepreneurs no longer dare to ask for sky-high valuations. Institutional investors now have absolute bargaining power and can acquire several times more equity or token shares with the same capital than in a bull market. More importantly, the teams that choose to start businesses and persist under such tough financing conditions have resilience and delivery capabilities far surpassing those of speculative storytellers in bull markets.

History does not simply repeat itself, but it always follows a similar rhythm. The end of macro geopolitical wars provides a breeding ground for the warming of global risk appetite; while the "2019-style" freezing point within the industry provides an excellent value pricing valley. The current crypto market is not lacking in value but lacks the patience to discover value and the courage to act in despair.

For professional fund managers, there is no need to overly concern oneself with short-term macro disturbances or the height of momentary rebounds. Recognizing the long-term logic brought by Bitcoin's "dual attributes," confronting the current industry reality of liquidity cliffs, and taking over bloodied chips when pessimists exit will allow those "smart money" sowing seeds in the "2019-style winter" of 2026 to reap the most fruitful results in the subsequent new round of macro easing and technological innovation resonance super bull market.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。