Written by: Xiao Yanyan, Jin Ten Data

According to Reuters, Israel launched its most intense airstrikes against Lebanon on Wednesday, resulting in hundreds of deaths and eliciting retaliation threats from Iran. Iran hinted that advancing negotiations for a permanent peace deal with the United States in this context would be "irrational."

This warning from Iran's chief negotiator and parliamentary speaker, Mohammed Bager Qalibaf, exposed the ongoing turmoil in the region following Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire agreement on Tuesday. The two sides have put forth completely different agendas for peace talks set to begin on Saturday, but it remains unclear whether the two-week ceasefire can hold until then.

Qalibaf stated that Israel has intensified its war against the Iran-aligned Hezbollah, having violated multiple conditions of the ceasefire agreement, while the United States insists that Iran abandon its nuclear ambitions, thus violating the agreement.

Qalibaf issued a statement saying that three key provisions from the ten-point proposal were violated before the negotiations began. They include:

• 1. Failure to comply with the provisions regarding a ceasefire in Lebanon outlined in the "ten-point proposal" — the Pakistani Prime Minister has specifically mentioned and claimed this is a "comprehensive ceasefire in all places, including Lebanon and other areas, effective immediately";

• 2. An invading drone entered Iranian airspace and was destroyed in the city of Laar in Fars Province, which clearly violates the terms prohibiting any further violations of Iranian airspace;

• 3. Denial of Iran's right to enrich uranium, which is included in item six of the framework.

Qalibaf remarked that the "practical and feasible conditions" that should serve as the basis for negotiations have been openly and clearly violated, even before discussions commenced. In this situation, implementing a bilateral ceasefire or conducting negotiations would be unreasonable.

According to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, if Israel continues its offensive in Lebanon, Iran may withdraw from the agreement announced by Trump.

Both Israel and the United States have stated that the two-week ceasefire does not cover Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated that the airstrikes will continue.

"I think the Iranians thought the ceasefire included Lebanon, but that is not the case," U.S. Vice President Vance, who will lead the American delegation, told reporters in Budapest.

The positions of both sides on the Iranian nuclear issue seem to be far apart — this is also one of the grounds for the war as stated by Trump.

Trump stated that Iran has agreed to stop uranium enrichment activities (uranium can be used to make nuclear weapons), and the White House claimed Iran has indicated it will hand over its existing stockpiles.

"The U.S. will work with Iran to unearth and clear all deeply buried... nuclear 'dust'," Trump stated on social media.

However, Qalibaf stated that under the terms of the ceasefire, Iran is allowed to continue its uranium enrichment activities.

Although both the U.S. and Iran have declared victory in this war, which has resulted in thousands of deaths and has lasted over five weeks, the core differences between the two sides remain unresolved. Each party insists on its own conflicting demands, and this agreement could shape the future landscape of the Middle East for generations to come.

Despite the uncertainty, global stock indices rose sharply on Wednesday, while oil prices plummeted by 14%, settling close to $95 per barrel, dipping as low as $90.40 during trading.

The benchmark Brent crude oil price is still about $25 higher than before the U.S.-Israeli joint strike began. Even though the U.S. has made substantial military investments in the region for decades, Tehran's recent demonstration of its ability to cut off Gulf energy supplies through its control of the Strait has indicated that this conflict has altered the power dynamics in the Gulf region.

"Finger on the Trigger"

Netanyahu stated that Israel has its "finger on the trigger" and is ready to "re-enter the fight at any moment."

The Lebanese civil defense department reported that Israel's airstrikes across Lebanon on Wednesday resulted in 254 deaths, with the capital Beirut experiencing the highest casualties, totaling 91 deaths. Residents stated that some Israeli airstrikes did not issue civilian evacuation warnings as usual.

According to a source in the oil industry, Iran also attacked oil facilities in nearby Gulf countries, including a pipeline in Saudi Arabia intended to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE also reported missile and drone strikes.

Reports indicate that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to unauthorized vessels, and shippers stated that they require clearer information before normal passage can resume. MarineTraffic data shows that since early Wednesday morning, two Greek and two Chinese bulk carriers have passed through the strait.

The Iranian Regime Survives

A large crowd took to the streets of Iran overnight to celebrate, waving Iranian flags and burning American and Israeli flags. However, some citizens expressed concerns that the agreement might not hold.

"Israel won’t let diplomacy work; Trump might change his mind tomorrow. But at least tonight we don’t have to sleep in an airstrike," 29-year-old government employee Alireza told Reuters over the phone.

The war was initiated on February 28 by Trump and Netanyahu. Their goal was to prevent Iran from projecting power beyond its borders, end its nuclear program, and create conditions for the Iranian people to overthrow their rulers. U.S. Defense Secretary Hegses stated on Wednesday that the U.S. has achieved a decisive military victory.

However, so far, Iran has maintained its nearly weapons-grade enriched uranium stockpile and the capability to launch missile and drone strikes against neighboring countries. The theocratic leadership, which faced massive protests months ago, has withstood the superpower's fierce attacks without showing any signs of internal collapse.

"The unjust, illegal, and criminal war waged against the Iranian nation by the enemy has suffered undeniable, historic, and devastating failure," stated the Iranian Supreme National Security Council.

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