Certainty trades for the US-Iran ceasefire — Bitcoin and WTI

I see many friends feeling anxious; on one hand, the big players are making money as easily as drinking water, while on the other hand, others are lamenting how hard it is to make money.

My advice is to try to maintain a calm mindset. Envy and pity cannot be transformed into productivity. To make money, one must have their own logic, and this logic is extremely important. I can only share what I have observed.

1. Have sufficient awareness.

2. Have information asymmetry.

3. Dare to act.

I am someone who dislikes gambling the most, so I hadn't opened any positions in any direction before this morning, primarily due to risk aversion. In fact, there were three opportunities this morning.

The first was when the Prime Minister of Pakistan provided a way out for both sides; at that time, many politically sensitive investors had already begun shorting oil and going long on $BTC, but I remained cautious and did not act.

The second opportunity came about half an hour after the Prime Minister of Pakistan's persuasive letter, when I saw a post from an author in the English-speaking area sharing a picture that US fighter jets had already begun to turn back. However, I was still too cautious and did not take action.

The third opportunity came about 2 minutes after Trump announced the ceasefire on truthsocial. I should have placed an order immediately, but I first tweeted and then placed the order, which delayed me a bit. At this point, placing the order had a higher probability of success for me.

First, I was not going long on Bitcoin; at that time, the price of $BTC had already exceeded $71,000, and the first two waves of investors had made good calls. So, I set up a dual currency investment with a low price and high interest rate, just to earn some interest while increasing the position size.

Secondly, I quickly shorted WTI (CLUSDT) because, compared to Bitcoin, the price of US oil was still at a high point; it had just fallen below $100, while before the conflict, the price of US oil was below $80. Compared to the price increase potential limited by the Federal Reserve for BTC, US oil had a greater potential for decline, making it a more certain opportunity.

Even taking a step back, if the price of US oil returns to $90, a $10 difference would still allow me to earn some money. Additionally, during the fluctuations in the afternoon, I continued to short at $96; after all, the US stock market had not yet opened, and there might be more room later in the evening.

This is a relatively high-certainty trade; even someone like me, who struggles with trading, can make money. I believe many other friends can do the same. Even without betting on direction, one can still earn something through time difference and understanding.

You can trade very little on usual days, but do not miss out on certain trades.

PS: Bought BTC for 10U, shorted WTI for 10U, continued shorting for 10U, totaling 30U for show.

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