Written by: US Stock Investment Network

On Tuesday, April 7, US stocks experienced a very typical V-shaped recovery.

During the day, the market was pricing in the worst-case scenario of "the situation in the Middle East potentially escalating comprehensively"; by the end of trading and after hours, funds quickly switched to a new expectation of "the conflict may not immediately spiral out of control, and there is still room for diplomacy." It seemed like a day of ups and downs, but behind it was a very clear chain: the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve were tightly connected.

Morning panic heightened On Tuesday morning, a risk-averse sentiment enveloped Wall Street. Trump issued extremely tough threats on social media, stating that "civilization may perish tonight," and set 8 PM Tuesday as the deadline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Once such a statement was made, the market's first reaction was not to discuss the wording but to directly price the worst outcomes.

If the conflict truly escalates and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, global energy transport would be impacted, potentially causing oil prices to climb further. Once oil prices spiral out of control, inflation expectations would rise again, and the Federal Reserve's room for cuts this year would be further compressed, facing a dilemma of "inflation not decreasing and growth weakening" once again.

Because of this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 400 points during the day, the S&P 500 also obviously dipped, and funds quickly flowed into safe-haven assets like oil. What the market sold off that morning was not only the risk of war but also the macro risks that high oil prices could rebind the hands of the Federal Reserve.

A turnaround before closing However, just as the deadline approached, a very critical change occurred in the situation. Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif publicly called on Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks, while also urging Iran to reopen the Strait for two weeks as a gesture of goodwill and pushing all parties to implement a two-week ceasefire to allow space for diplomatic mediation.

The significance of this signal is very straightforward; it made the market realize: fighting might not start immediately tonight, and there is still a window for negotiation. As long as the worst-case scenario doesn’t materialize immediately, the risks priced in under the "comprehensive escalation" can be repaired for a period.

Thus, towards the end of trading, market sentiment began to warm, and the index pulled up significantly from the day’s low. Ultimately, by the close, the Dow Jones fell 0.18%, the Nasdaq rose 0.10%, and the S&P 500 surged 0.08%. Although on the surface, it was just a mixed close, if combined with the intra-day movements, this was a significant recovery.

US Stock Investment Network's precise arrangement

During the day, healthcare stocks showed a strong independent trend. Stimulated by positive news from the Z administration, the US Z administration announced that the final payment policy for Medicare Advantage (MA) in 2027 is expected to allow MA plans to achieve a payment growth of 2.48%, far exceeding the 0.09% in the preliminary plan from early January this year. CMS stated that the new payment scale corresponding to this plan will exceed $13 billion, and if considering risk assessment adjustments, the industry’s total payment uplift will be close to 5%.

As a result, industry giant $UNH rose more than 9% in a single day.

As early as March 23, we found through the real-time options order flow of US stock data platform StockWe.com that there was significant buying. At that time, a large abnormal order worth a total of $2.6 million was detected, with the buyer extremely bullish on UNH.

Based on this data, we notified the options community to buy call options for UNH, specifically with an expiration date of April 24, 2026, and a strike price of $280, with bidding around $12.65.

Today's strong spike in UNH reaffirms the accurate sensitivity of large funds ahead of policy changes. Currently, this option price has risen to $32.3, nearly tripling!

We also made a simultaneous arrangement on $AAPL that day, and the timing was precisely when market sentiment was worst and the stock price hit the day’s low. $TSLA $NVDA

In the morning, Apple faced significant adverse news, weighed down by reports of delays in developing the foldable iPhone. The stock price fell sharply. Concerns arose that Apple’s first foldable iPhone faced more engineering and technical issues than expected during the early testing production phase, leading to a possible delay of several months in the first shipment.

This news directly impacted the market’s expectations for Apple’s next-generation hardware innovation cycle, resulting in a wave of concentrated selling pressure on AAPL in the morning.

However, it was precisely during this extreme panic that we decided to act, buying the underlying stock at $247.55 at 11:27 AM (8:27 AM Pacific Time), accurately catching the bottom.

At the same time, at 11:15 AM (8:15 AM Pacific Time), we also alerted the VIP community to buy AAPL call options expiring on April 10, 2026, with a strike price of $255, buying at around $0.73.

Subsequently, Apple’s stock price began to rise. Some analysts noted that despite the issues during development, the company is still on track to release its foldable phone in September. After hours, Apple’s stock price was $259.3, gaining about 5% from our purchase point. Meanwhile, our options reached $2.6, nearly quadrupling!

After hours, Trump opened up

Later, Trump stated on social media that he agreed to pause bombing and attack operations against Iran for two weeks, provided that Iran "completely, immediately, and safely" opens the Strait of Hormuz.

He also mentioned that this decision was made after discussions with Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif and General Asim Munir of the Pakistani Army, stating that it would be a "mutual ceasefire".

More critically, he added: significant progress has been made in negotiations over a long-term peace agreement between the US and Iran, and the ten-point proposals raised by Iran have become a basis for continuing negotiations.

Trump's official statement on Iran on Truth Social:

The core meaning conveyed by this image is:

First, thanks to Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif and General Munir for their mediation efforts to end the regional war.

Second, the US has proposed a 15-point plan, and Trump accepted the overall framework of Iran's 10-point plan, willing to use it as the basis for negotiations.

Third, a conditional statement is made: if attacks against Iran stop, Iran’s armed forces will cease defensive actions; and that within the next two weeks, the Strait of Hormuz can achieve safe passage under coordinated and technical restrictions.

The market's reaction after hours was very direct: stock index futures surged sharply, and oil prices tumbled. Data showed that after the news broke, S&P 500 futures surged 1.8%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2%, and Dow futures surged 832 points; correspondingly, WTI crude oil dropped 14.36% to $96.73, and Brent crude fell 14.17% to $93.79.

This dramatic fluctuation is underpinned by a pricing logic: as the Strait of Hormuz is the global energy choke point, the high oil prices resulting from its blockage would force inflation to rise, thus threatening the interest rate outlook. Now that expectations of a ceasefire have emerged, the drop in oil prices has directly alleviated the "alarm" of the Federal Reserve being compelled to raise or maintain high interest rates.

The previous market crash was essentially pricing in "war costs." Now that there is a two-week buffer, and with official hints that an agreement is close to being finalized, funds naturally start to quickly correct the valuations that were wrongly killed due to panic earlier. With the consensus on "not going to war" prevailing, the market is accelerating to recover the lost parts.

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